Steve Toth secured the Republican nomination for Texas's 2nd congressional district by defeating incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 primary, 55.8% to 40.7%, on a platform emphasizing border security, conservative social policies, and limited government. The district, encompassing northern Houston suburbs such as The Woodlands and Montgomery County, carries a Republican Partisan Voter Index around R+11 and was redrawn in 2025 to strengthen its GOP tilt. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Democrat Shaun Finnie, an investment banker who ran unopposed in his primary, has raised substantially more funds, yet the district's voting patterns and primary outcome anchor trader consensus around Toth. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment could still shift probabilities before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$23,429 Vol.
$23,429 Vol.
2026/11/02
スティーブ・トス（共和党）
93%
ショーン・フィニー（民主党）
7%
$23,429 Vol.
$23,429 Vol.
2026/11/02
スティーブ・トス（共和党）
$11,629 Vol.
93%
ショーン・フィニー（民主党）
$11,800 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steve Toth secured the Republican nomination for Texas's 2nd congressional district by defeating incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 primary, 55.8% to 40.7%, on a platform emphasizing border security, conservative social policies, and limited government. The district, encompassing northern Houston suburbs such as The Woodlands and Montgomery County, carries a Republican Partisan Voter Index around R+11 and was redrawn in 2025 to strengthen its GOP tilt. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Democrat Shaun Finnie, an investment banker who ran unopposed in his primary, has raised substantially more funds, yet the district's voting patterns and primary outcome anchor trader consensus around Toth. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment could still shift probabilities before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$23,429終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steve Toth secured the Republican nomination for Texas's 2nd congressional district by defeating incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 primary, 55.8% to 40.7%, on a platform emphasizing border security, conservative social policies, and limited government. The district, encompassing northern Houston suburbs such as The Woodlands and Montgomery County, carries a Republican Partisan Voter Index around R+11 and was redrawn in 2025 to strengthen its GOP tilt. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Democrat Shaun Finnie, an investment banker who ran unopposed in his primary, has raised substantially more funds, yet the district's voting patterns and primary outcome anchor trader consensus around Toth. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment could still shift probabilities before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$23,429終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Steve Toth secured the Republican nomination for Texas's 2nd congressional district by defeating incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 primary, 55.8% to 40.7%, on a platform emphasizing border security, conservative social policies, and limited government. The district, encompassing northern Houston suburbs such as The Woodlands and Montgomery County, carries a Republican Partisan Voter Index around R+11 and was redrawn in 2025 to strengthen its GOP tilt. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Democrat Shaun Finnie, an investment banker who ran unopposed in his primary, has raised substantially more funds, yet the district's voting patterns and primary outcome anchor trader consensus around Toth. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment could still shift probabilities before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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