Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in the New York 4th congressional district race heading into the November 3 general election. Her 2024 victory by roughly two points in a D+2 district, combined with strong Democratic enrollment advantages on Long Island, underpins the 92.5% trader consensus. Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination in June but enters as a local tax official without the statewide profile or fundraising edge of prior GOP candidates. Election forecasters rate the seat Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting Gillen's incumbency, constituent services record, and the absence of a more competitive challenger after Anthony D’Esposito opted not to run. A late national Republican surge, major scandal, or sharp shift in suburban turnout could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
ローラ・ギレン（民主党）
93%
ジャニーン・ドリスコル（共和党）
5%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
ローラ・ギレン（民主党）
$3,056 Vol.
93%
ジャニーン・ドリスコル（共和党）
$1,990 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in the New York 4th congressional district race heading into the November 3 general election. Her 2024 victory by roughly two points in a D+2 district, combined with strong Democratic enrollment advantages on Long Island, underpins the 92.5% trader consensus. Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination in June but enters as a local tax official without the statewide profile or fundraising edge of prior GOP candidates. Election forecasters rate the seat Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting Gillen's incumbency, constituent services record, and the absence of a more competitive challenger after Anthony D’Esposito opted not to run. A late national Republican surge, major scandal, or sharp shift in suburban turnout could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
音量
$5,046終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in the New York 4th congressional district race heading into the November 3 general election. Her 2024 victory by roughly two points in a D+2 district, combined with strong Democratic enrollment advantages on Long Island, underpins the 92.5% trader consensus. Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination in June but enters as a local tax official without the statewide profile or fundraising edge of prior GOP candidates. Election forecasters rate the seat Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting Gillen's incumbency, constituent services record, and the absence of a more competitive challenger after Anthony D’Esposito opted not to run. A late national Republican surge, major scandal, or sharp shift in suburban turnout could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$5,046終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in the New York 4th congressional district race heading into the November 3 general election. Her 2024 victory by roughly two points in a D+2 district, combined with strong Democratic enrollment advantages on Long Island, underpins the 92.5% trader consensus. Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination in June but enters as a local tax official without the statewide profile or fundraising edge of prior GOP candidates. Election forecasters rate the seat Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting Gillen's incumbency, constituent services record, and the absence of a more competitive challenger after Anthony D’Esposito opted not to run. A late national Republican surge, major scandal, or sharp shift in suburban turnout could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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