Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding lead in the PA-11 House race due to the district's strong Republican lean, encompassing Lancaster County and southern York County in Pennsylvania Dutch Country. Smucker, serving since 2017 and unopposed in the May 2026 Republican primary, benefits from substantial fundraising edges and established voter support in a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Democratic nominee Nancy Mannion, a nurse who won her primary uncontested, trails significantly in resources and faces structural barriers typical for challengers in this area. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical patterns of high incumbency retention in similarly partisan districts, though late developments such as national economic shifts or candidate-specific events within the November 3 resolution window could still influence final margins.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$25,794 Vol.
$25,794 Vol.
2026/11/02
ロイド・スマッカー（共和党）
97%
ナンシー・マニオン（民主党）
3%
$25,794 Vol.
$25,794 Vol.
2026/11/02
ロイド・スマッカー（共和党）
$15,668 Vol.
97%
ナンシー・マニオン（民主党）
$10,126 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding lead in the PA-11 House race due to the district's strong Republican lean, encompassing Lancaster County and southern York County in Pennsylvania Dutch Country. Smucker, serving since 2017 and unopposed in the May 2026 Republican primary, benefits from substantial fundraising edges and established voter support in a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Democratic nominee Nancy Mannion, a nurse who won her primary uncontested, trails significantly in resources and faces structural barriers typical for challengers in this area. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical patterns of high incumbency retention in similarly partisan districts, though late developments such as national economic shifts or candidate-specific events within the November 3 resolution window could still influence final margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$25,794終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding lead in the PA-11 House race due to the district's strong Republican lean, encompassing Lancaster County and southern York County in Pennsylvania Dutch Country. Smucker, serving since 2017 and unopposed in the May 2026 Republican primary, benefits from substantial fundraising edges and established voter support in a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Democratic nominee Nancy Mannion, a nurse who won her primary uncontested, trails significantly in resources and faces structural barriers typical for challengers in this area. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical patterns of high incumbency retention in similarly partisan districts, though late developments such as national economic shifts or candidate-specific events within the November 3 resolution window could still influence final margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$25,794終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding lead in the PA-11 House race due to the district's strong Republican lean, encompassing Lancaster County and southern York County in Pennsylvania Dutch Country. Smucker, serving since 2017 and unopposed in the May 2026 Republican primary, benefits from substantial fundraising edges and established voter support in a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Democratic nominee Nancy Mannion, a nurse who won her primary uncontested, trails significantly in resources and faces structural barriers typical for challengers in this area. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical patterns of high incumbency retention in similarly partisan districts, though late developments such as national economic shifts or candidate-specific events within the November 3 resolution window could still influence final margins.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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