Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in Washington’s 5th Congressional District, a seat rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP. He advanced comfortably through the August 2026 top-two primary with roughly 47% of the vote and now faces Democrat Carmela Conroy in a November 3 rematch. Baumgartner defeated her by 21 points in 2024, outperforming the district’s narrower 11-point Trump margin from that cycle. His substantial fundraising lead, committee roles on Foreign Affairs and Judiciary, and absence of primary challengers from the right reinforce trader expectations of continued Republican control, while Conroy’s lower profile and the district’s consistent voting patterns limit Democratic prospects absent major shifts before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$55,803 Vol.
$55,803 Vol.
2026/11/02
マイケル・バウムガートナー（共和党）
81%
カーメラ・コンロイ（民主党）
19%
$55,803 Vol.
$55,803 Vol.
2026/11/02
マイケル・バウムガートナー（共和党）
$22,351 Vol.
81%
カーメラ・コンロイ（民主党）
$33,452 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in Washington’s 5th Congressional District, a seat rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP. He advanced comfortably through the August 2026 top-two primary with roughly 47% of the vote and now faces Democrat Carmela Conroy in a November 3 rematch. Baumgartner defeated her by 21 points in 2024, outperforming the district’s narrower 11-point Trump margin from that cycle. His substantial fundraising lead, committee roles on Foreign Affairs and Judiciary, and absence of primary challengers from the right reinforce trader expectations of continued Republican control, while Conroy’s lower profile and the district’s consistent voting patterns limit Democratic prospects absent major shifts before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$55,803終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in Washington’s 5th Congressional District, a seat rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP. He advanced comfortably through the August 2026 top-two primary with roughly 47% of the vote and now faces Democrat Carmela Conroy in a November 3 rematch. Baumgartner defeated her by 21 points in 2024, outperforming the district’s narrower 11-point Trump margin from that cycle. His substantial fundraising lead, committee roles on Foreign Affairs and Judiciary, and absence of primary challengers from the right reinforce trader expectations of continued Republican control, while Conroy’s lower profile and the district’s consistent voting patterns limit Democratic prospects absent major shifts before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$55,803終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in Washington’s 5th Congressional District, a seat rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP. He advanced comfortably through the August 2026 top-two primary with roughly 47% of the vote and now faces Democrat Carmela Conroy in a November 3 rematch. Baumgartner defeated her by 21 points in 2024, outperforming the district’s narrower 11-point Trump margin from that cycle. His substantial fundraising lead, committee roles on Foreign Affairs and Judiciary, and absence of primary challengers from the right reinforce trader expectations of continued Republican control, while Conroy’s lower profile and the district’s consistent voting patterns limit Democratic prospects absent major shifts before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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