Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky’s 4th congressional district by defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie in the May 2026 primary, backed by President Trump and substantial outside spending. The open-seat race occurs in a district that favored Republicans by roughly 20 points in the prior presidential contest and carries consistent solid-Republican ratings from forecasters. Gallrein holds a large fundraising edge and benefits from the district’s partisan composition, while Democratic nominee Melissa Strange faces structural headwinds in a low-turnout general election environment. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the absence of recent polling shifts or late developments that would narrow the gap. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited to unanticipated events such as major scandals or health developments affecting either candidate before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$37,603 Vol.
$37,603 Vol.
2026/11/02
エド・ガルライン（共和党）
94%
メリッサ・ストレンジ（民主党）
6%
$37,603 Vol.
$37,603 Vol.
2026/11/02
エド・ガルライン（共和党）
$25,306 Vol.
94%
メリッサ・ストレンジ（民主党）
$12,297 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky’s 4th congressional district by defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie in the May 2026 primary, backed by President Trump and substantial outside spending. The open-seat race occurs in a district that favored Republicans by roughly 20 points in the prior presidential contest and carries consistent solid-Republican ratings from forecasters. Gallrein holds a large fundraising edge and benefits from the district’s partisan composition, while Democratic nominee Melissa Strange faces structural headwinds in a low-turnout general election environment. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the absence of recent polling shifts or late developments that would narrow the gap. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited to unanticipated events such as major scandals or health developments affecting either candidate before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$37,603終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky’s 4th congressional district by defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie in the May 2026 primary, backed by President Trump and substantial outside spending. The open-seat race occurs in a district that favored Republicans by roughly 20 points in the prior presidential contest and carries consistent solid-Republican ratings from forecasters. Gallrein holds a large fundraising edge and benefits from the district’s partisan composition, while Democratic nominee Melissa Strange faces structural headwinds in a low-turnout general election environment. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the absence of recent polling shifts or late developments that would narrow the gap. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited to unanticipated events such as major scandals or health developments affecting either candidate before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$37,603終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky’s 4th congressional district by defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie in the May 2026 primary, backed by President Trump and substantial outside spending. The open-seat race occurs in a district that favored Republicans by roughly 20 points in the prior presidential contest and carries consistent solid-Republican ratings from forecasters. Gallrein holds a large fundraising edge and benefits from the district’s partisan composition, while Democratic nominee Melissa Strange faces structural headwinds in a low-turnout general election environment. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the absence of recent polling shifts or late developments that would narrow the gap. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain limited to unanticipated events such as major scandals or health developments affecting either candidate before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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