The Iowa 4th congressional district's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in prior cycles, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Randy Feenstra's retirement to pursue the governorship created an open seat, yet Chris McGowan consolidated support as the unopposed Republican candidate following withdrawals and a Trump endorsement, while Democrat Dave Dawson emerged from a fragmented June primary. All major race ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Republican, with limited polling or campaign developments since the primaries to alter trader assessments. A Democratic upset would require substantial shifts in turnout or late-cycle events capable of overcoming the district's structural partisan advantage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$34,614 Vol.
$34,614 Vol.
2026/11/02
クリス・マクゴーワン（共和党）
94%
デイビッド・ドーソン（民主党）
7%
$34,614 Vol.
$34,614 Vol.
2026/11/02
クリス・マクゴーワン（共和党）
$21,708 Vol.
94%
デイビッド・ドーソン（民主党）
$12,906 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Iowa 4th congressional district's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in prior cycles, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Randy Feenstra's retirement to pursue the governorship created an open seat, yet Chris McGowan consolidated support as the unopposed Republican candidate following withdrawals and a Trump endorsement, while Democrat Dave Dawson emerged from a fragmented June primary. All major race ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Republican, with limited polling or campaign developments since the primaries to alter trader assessments. A Democratic upset would require substantial shifts in turnout or late-cycle events capable of overcoming the district's structural partisan advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$34,614終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Iowa 4th congressional district's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in prior cycles, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Randy Feenstra's retirement to pursue the governorship created an open seat, yet Chris McGowan consolidated support as the unopposed Republican candidate following withdrawals and a Trump endorsement, while Democrat Dave Dawson emerged from a fragmented June primary. All major race ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Republican, with limited polling or campaign developments since the primaries to alter trader assessments. A Democratic upset would require substantial shifts in turnout or late-cycle events capable of overcoming the district's structural partisan advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$34,614終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...The Iowa 4th congressional district's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in prior cycles, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Randy Feenstra's retirement to pursue the governorship created an open seat, yet Chris McGowan consolidated support as the unopposed Republican candidate following withdrawals and a Trump endorsement, while Democrat Dave Dawson emerged from a fragmented June primary. All major race ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Republican, with limited polling or campaign developments since the primaries to alter trader assessments. A Democratic upset would require substantial shifts in turnout or late-cycle events capable of overcoming the district's structural partisan advantage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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