Recent polls from late August and early September show Renato Casagrande (PSB) holding a clear lead for one Senate seat in Espírito Santo, while a tight technical tie persists among several contenders for second place ahead of the October 4 vote. Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), Fabiano Contarato (PT), Rose de Freitas (MDB), Maguinha Malta (PL), Evair de Melo (Republicanos), and Marcos do Val (Avante) cluster closely in the single digits to low teens when first and second preferences are combined, reflecting a fragmented field beyond the frontrunner. High shares of undecided voters, blank or null ballots, and the dual-vote system sustain this equilibrium by spreading support across multiple names without decisive consolidation. Further polling, candidate debates, or late coalition signals could shift preferences and widen gaps among the pack before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSergio Meneguelli 41%
Fabiano Contarato 30.6%
Rose de Freitas 20.9%
Maguinha Malta 11.3%
$39,378 Vol.
$39,378 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Meneguelli
41%
Fabiano Contarato
31%
Rose de Freitas
21%
Maguinha Malta
11%
Renato Casagrande
4%
Evair de Melo
3%
Callegari
<1%
Leonardo Monjardim
<1%
Marcos do Val
<1%
Professor Fabian
<1%
Rodney Miranda
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli 41%
Fabiano Contarato 30.6%
Rose de Freitas 20.9%
Maguinha Malta 11.3%
$39,378 Vol.
$39,378 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Meneguelli
$21,393 Vol.
41%
Fabiano Contarato
$6,976 Vol.
31%
Rose de Freitas
$4,569 Vol.
21%
Maguinha Malta
$1,449 Vol.
11%
Renato Casagrande
$1,017 Vol.
4%
Evair de Melo
$1,136 Vol.
3%
Callegari
$778 Vol.
<1%
Leonardo Monjardim
$646 Vol.
<1%
Marcos do Val
$577 Vol.
<1%
Professor Fabian
$422 Vol.
<1%
Rodney Miranda
$414 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from late August and early September show Renato Casagrande (PSB) holding a clear lead for one Senate seat in Espírito Santo, while a tight technical tie persists among several contenders for second place ahead of the October 4 vote. Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), Fabiano Contarato (PT), Rose de Freitas (MDB), Maguinha Malta (PL), Evair de Melo (Republicanos), and Marcos do Val (Avante) cluster closely in the single digits to low teens when first and second preferences are combined, reflecting a fragmented field beyond the frontrunner. High shares of undecided voters, blank or null ballots, and the dual-vote system sustain this equilibrium by spreading support across multiple names without decisive consolidation. Further polling, candidate debates, or late coalition signals could shift preferences and widen gaps among the pack before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Volume
$39,378End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from late August and early September show Renato Casagrande (PSB) holding a clear lead for one Senate seat in Espírito Santo, while a tight technical tie persists among several contenders for second place ahead of the October 4 vote. Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), Fabiano Contarato (PT), Rose de Freitas (MDB), Maguinha Malta (PL), Evair de Melo (Republicanos), and Marcos do Val (Avante) cluster closely in the single digits to low teens when first and second preferences are combined, reflecting a fragmented field beyond the frontrunner. High shares of undecided voters, blank or null ballots, and the dual-vote system sustain this equilibrium by spreading support across multiple names without decisive consolidation. Further polling, candidate debates, or late coalition signals could shift preferences and widen gaps among the pack before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$39,378End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from late August and early September show Renato Casagrande (PSB) holding a clear lead for one Senate seat in Espírito Santo, while a tight technical tie persists among several contenders for second place ahead of the October 4 vote. Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), Fabiano Contarato (PT), Rose de Freitas (MDB), Maguinha Malta (PL), Evair de Melo (Republicanos), and Marcos do Val (Avante) cluster closely in the single digits to low teens when first and second preferences are combined, reflecting a fragmented field beyond the frontrunner. High shares of undecided voters, blank or null ballots, and the dual-vote system sustain this equilibrium by spreading support across multiple names without decisive consolidation. Further polling, candidate debates, or late coalition signals could shift preferences and widen gaps among the pack before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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