Renan Santos, the Mission Party candidate in Brazil’s 2026 presidential race, has already joined one televised debate on August 23 and maintains an active campaign focused on media visibility to offset single-digit polling. A September 1 TSE ruling by Minister Dias Toffoli restored his eligibility for debates, interviews, and digital outreach after a brief suspension tied to registration filings, removing the principal legal obstacle. With his candidacy formally registered and additional encounters scheduled before the October 4 first-round vote, traders assign near-certain probability to further participation absent new restrictions. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unforeseen court order, sudden candidate withdrawal from a specific event, or last-minute debate cancellation by broadcasters.