The tight contest for Pará governor centers on incumbent Hana Ghassan (MDB) holding a narrow edge over challenger Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) in the final weeks before the October election. Recent Real Time Big Data polling from early September shows a technical tie in the first round at 37% to 35%, with similar results in a projected runoff, amid sizable shares of undecided and blank/null voters. Ghassan benefits from her position as sitting governor following Helder Barbalho’s April resignation, while Santos draws support as the leading opposition figure and former Ananindeua mayor. Trader pricing reflects this dynamic, with Ghassan at 53.5% implied probability versus Santos at 46.5%, and all other listed candidates below 2%. Key factors that could widen the gap include turnout patterns among undecided voters, late campaign events, or shifts in rejection rates ahead of the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPará Governor Election Winner
Pará Governor Election Winner
Hana Ghassan 54%
Dr. Daniel Santos 47%
Éder Mauro 1.5%
Dirceu Ten Caten <1%
$39,425 Vol.
$39,425 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Hana Ghassan
54%
Dr. Daniel Santos
47%
Éder Mauro
1%
Dirceu Ten Caten
1%
Zequinha Marinho
<1%
Paulo Rocha
<1%
Rogério Barra
<1%
Hana Ghassan 54%
Dr. Daniel Santos 47%
Éder Mauro 1.5%
Dirceu Ten Caten <1%
$39,425 Vol.
$39,425 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Hana Ghassan
$15,632 Vol.
54%
Dr. Daniel Santos
$10,826 Vol.
47%
Éder Mauro
$4,554 Vol.
1%
Dirceu Ten Caten
$2,080 Vol.
1%
Zequinha Marinho
$2,076 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rocha
$2,120 Vol.
<1%
Rogério Barra
$2,137 Vol.
<1%
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for Pará governor centers on incumbent Hana Ghassan (MDB) holding a narrow edge over challenger Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) in the final weeks before the October election. Recent Real Time Big Data polling from early September shows a technical tie in the first round at 37% to 35%, with similar results in a projected runoff, amid sizable shares of undecided and blank/null voters. Ghassan benefits from her position as sitting governor following Helder Barbalho’s April resignation, while Santos draws support as the leading opposition figure and former Ananindeua mayor. Trader pricing reflects this dynamic, with Ghassan at 53.5% implied probability versus Santos at 46.5%, and all other listed candidates below 2%. Key factors that could widen the gap include turnout patterns among undecided voters, late campaign events, or shifts in rejection rates ahead of the vote.
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
Volume
$39,425End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for Pará governor centers on incumbent Hana Ghassan (MDB) holding a narrow edge over challenger Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) in the final weeks before the October election. Recent Real Time Big Data polling from early September shows a technical tie in the first round at 37% to 35%, with similar results in a projected runoff, amid sizable shares of undecided and blank/null voters. Ghassan benefits from her position as sitting governor following Helder Barbalho’s April resignation, while Santos draws support as the leading opposition figure and former Ananindeua mayor. Trader pricing reflects this dynamic, with Ghassan at 53.5% implied probability versus Santos at 46.5%, and all other listed candidates below 2%. Key factors that could widen the gap include turnout patterns among undecided voters, late campaign events, or shifts in rejection rates ahead of the vote.
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$39,425End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight contest for Pará governor centers on incumbent Hana Ghassan (MDB) holding a narrow edge over challenger Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) in the final weeks before the October election. Recent Real Time Big Data polling from early September shows a technical tie in the first round at 37% to 35%, with similar results in a projected runoff, amid sizable shares of undecided and blank/null voters. Ghassan benefits from her position as sitting governor following Helder Barbalho’s April resignation, while Santos draws support as the leading opposition figure and former Ananindeua mayor. Trader pricing reflects this dynamic, with Ghassan at 53.5% implied probability versus Santos at 46.5%, and all other listed candidates below 2%. Key factors that could widen the gap include turnout patterns among undecided voters, late campaign events, or shifts in rejection rates ahead of the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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