Recent polling shows a tight contest for second place in São Paulo’s October 4 Senate election, with Simone Tebet (PSB), Marina Silva (Rede), Guilherme Derrite (PP), and André do Prado (PL) clustered near the top in surveys conducted in early September. Tebet and Silva benefit from the “Desperta São Paulo” coalition backing Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial bid and shared appearances with President Lula, while Derrite and Prado draw support from the “Coragem para Seguir Avançando” slate aligned with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. A September 9 debate highlighted differences on security, corruption probes, and institutional issues, yet undecided voters remain high and second-preference shares stay fluid. These dynamics sustain close implied probabilities among the leading contenders, with limited time left for any single campaign to consolidate the second slot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSimone Tebet 36%
Marina Silva 28%
André do Prado 22.1%
Guilherme Derrite 13%
$48,009 Vol.
$48,009 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Simone Tebet
36%
Marina Silva
28%
André do Prado
22%
Guilherme Derrite
13%
Salles
2%
Marcio Alves
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
William Teixeira
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
<1%
Maíra de Souza
<1%
Soninha Francine
<1%
Simone Tebet 36%
Marina Silva 28%
André do Prado 22.1%
Guilherme Derrite 13%
$48,009 Vol.
$48,009 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Simone Tebet
$11,573 Vol.
36%
Marina Silva
$11,507 Vol.
28%
André do Prado
$6,966 Vol.
22%
Guilherme Derrite
$7,260 Vol.
13%
Salles
$5,220 Vol.
2%
Marcio Alves
$648 Vol.
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$580 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
$528 Vol.
<1%
Petter Maahs
$757 Vol.
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
$813 Vol.
<1%
William Teixeira
$686 Vol.
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$457 Vol.
<1%
Maíra de Souza
$406 Vol.
<1%
Soninha Francine
$608 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling shows a tight contest for second place in São Paulo’s October 4 Senate election, with Simone Tebet (PSB), Marina Silva (Rede), Guilherme Derrite (PP), and André do Prado (PL) clustered near the top in surveys conducted in early September. Tebet and Silva benefit from the “Desperta São Paulo” coalition backing Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial bid and shared appearances with President Lula, while Derrite and Prado draw support from the “Coragem para Seguir Avançando” slate aligned with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. A September 9 debate highlighted differences on security, corruption probes, and institutional issues, yet undecided voters remain high and second-preference shares stay fluid. These dynamics sustain close implied probabilities among the leading contenders, with limited time left for any single campaign to consolidate the second slot.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$48,009End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling shows a tight contest for second place in São Paulo’s October 4 Senate election, with Simone Tebet (PSB), Marina Silva (Rede), Guilherme Derrite (PP), and André do Prado (PL) clustered near the top in surveys conducted in early September. Tebet and Silva benefit from the “Desperta São Paulo” coalition backing Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial bid and shared appearances with President Lula, while Derrite and Prado draw support from the “Coragem para Seguir Avançando” slate aligned with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. A September 9 debate highlighted differences on security, corruption probes, and institutional issues, yet undecided voters remain high and second-preference shares stay fluid. These dynamics sustain close implied probabilities among the leading contenders, with limited time left for any single campaign to consolidate the second slot.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$48,009End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows a tight contest for second place in São Paulo’s October 4 Senate election, with Simone Tebet (PSB), Marina Silva (Rede), Guilherme Derrite (PP), and André do Prado (PL) clustered near the top in surveys conducted in early September. Tebet and Silva benefit from the “Desperta São Paulo” coalition backing Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial bid and shared appearances with President Lula, while Derrite and Prado draw support from the “Coragem para Seguir Avançando” slate aligned with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. A September 9 debate highlighted differences on security, corruption probes, and institutional issues, yet undecided voters remain high and second-preference shares stay fluid. These dynamics sustain close implied probabilities among the leading contenders, with limited time left for any single campaign to consolidate the second slot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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