**Traders assign an 84.5% probability that Alexandre de Moraes remains on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal faces steep institutional barriers.** Multiple impeachment petitions have been filed in the Senate amid allegations linking him to a banker in the Banco Master fraud case and related disputes with Justice André Mendonça, yet Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has not advanced them. Impeachment requires a two-thirds Senate majority and the president’s agenda control, patterns that have stalled prior requests. Recent STF actions, including Chief Justice Edson Fachin reassigning the “fake news” inquiry and a September 15 postponement of any probe into Moraes, further illustrate internal court dynamics that have not produced suspension or removal. The October presidential election adds uncertainty over future Senate composition, but current procedural and political thresholds continue to support the prevailing trader consensus against an imminent exit.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated16% chance
$90,697 Vol.
$90,697 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
16% chance
$90,697 Vol.
$90,697 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Traders assign an 84.5% probability that Alexandre de Moraes remains on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal faces steep institutional barriers.** Multiple impeachment petitions have been filed in the Senate amid allegations linking him to a banker in the Banco Master fraud case and related disputes with Justice André Mendonça, yet Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has not advanced them. Impeachment requires a two-thirds Senate majority and the president’s agenda control, patterns that have stalled prior requests. Recent STF actions, including Chief Justice Edson Fachin reassigning the “fake news” inquiry and a September 15 postponement of any probe into Moraes, further illustrate internal court dynamics that have not produced suspension or removal. The October presidential election adds uncertainty over future Senate composition, but current procedural and political thresholds continue to support the prevailing trader consensus against an imminent exit.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$90,697End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Traders assign an 84.5% probability that Alexandre de Moraes remains on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal faces steep institutional barriers.** Multiple impeachment petitions have been filed in the Senate amid allegations linking him to a banker in the Banco Master fraud case and related disputes with Justice André Mendonça, yet Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has not advanced them. Impeachment requires a two-thirds Senate majority and the president’s agenda control, patterns that have stalled prior requests. Recent STF actions, including Chief Justice Edson Fachin reassigning the “fake news” inquiry and a September 15 postponement of any probe into Moraes, further illustrate internal court dynamics that have not produced suspension or removal. The October presidential election adds uncertainty over future Senate composition, but current procedural and political thresholds continue to support the prevailing trader consensus against an imminent exit.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$90,697End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 84.5% probability that Alexandre de Moraes remains on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal faces steep institutional barriers.** Multiple impeachment petitions have been filed in the Senate amid allegations linking him to a banker in the Banco Master fraud case and related disputes with Justice André Mendonça, yet Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has not advanced them. Impeachment requires a two-thirds Senate majority and the president’s agenda control, patterns that have stalled prior requests. Recent STF actions, including Chief Justice Edson Fachin reassigning the “fake news” inquiry and a September 15 postponement of any probe into Moraes, further illustrate internal court dynamics that have not produced suspension or removal. The October presidential election adds uncertainty over future Senate composition, but current procedural and political thresholds continue to support the prevailing trader consensus against an imminent exit.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions