Multiple recent polls, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from August 2026, show five leading candidates—Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL), Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), Germano Rigotto (MDB), Paulo Pimenta (PT), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL)—in a technical tie within margins of error for the two Senate seats, with consolidated vote shares clustered between roughly 8% and 20% and undecided or blank responses often exceeding 40%. High fragmentation stems from candidates aligned with competing gubernatorial tickets, broad name recognition among established figures, and limited differentiation on key state issues ahead of the October 4 vote. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, pricing several names competitively for second place while assigning minimal probability to the long list of other registered contenders. Further separation could emerge from campaign events, coalition consolidation, or shifts in voter turnout patterns in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedManuela D'Ávila 32%
Marcel Van Hattem 27%
Rigotto 26%
Pimenta 11%
$34,663 Vol.
$34,663 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Manuela D'Ávila
32%
Marcel Van Hattem
27%
Rigotto
26%
Pimenta
11%
Sanderson
3%
Tania Peres
<1%
Ric Jones
<1%
Frederico Antunes
<1%
Luciano do MLB
<1%
Milton Cardoso
<1%
Regis Ethur
<1%
Renato Jaguarão
<1%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas
<1%
Manuela D'Ávila 32%
Marcel Van Hattem 27%
Rigotto 26%
Pimenta 11%
$34,663 Vol.
$34,663 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Manuela D'Ávila
$8,524 Vol.
32%
Marcel Van Hattem
$11,456 Vol.
27%
Rigotto
$3,843 Vol.
26%
Pimenta
$2,574 Vol.
11%
Sanderson
$1,837 Vol.
3%
Tania Peres
$1,032 Vol.
<1%
Ric Jones
$954 Vol.
<1%
Frederico Antunes
$753 Vol.
<1%
Luciano do MLB
$1,089 Vol.
<1%
Milton Cardoso
$340 Vol.
<1%
Regis Ethur
$419 Vol.
<1%
Renato Jaguarão
$830 Vol.
<1%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas
$1,013 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Multiple recent polls, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from August 2026, show five leading candidates—Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL), Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), Germano Rigotto (MDB), Paulo Pimenta (PT), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL)—in a technical tie within margins of error for the two Senate seats, with consolidated vote shares clustered between roughly 8% and 20% and undecided or blank responses often exceeding 40%. High fragmentation stems from candidates aligned with competing gubernatorial tickets, broad name recognition among established figures, and limited differentiation on key state issues ahead of the October 4 vote. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, pricing several names competitively for second place while assigning minimal probability to the long list of other registered contenders. Further separation could emerge from campaign events, coalition consolidation, or shifts in voter turnout patterns in the final weeks.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
Volume
$34,663End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Multiple recent polls, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from August 2026, show five leading candidates—Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL), Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), Germano Rigotto (MDB), Paulo Pimenta (PT), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL)—in a technical tie within margins of error for the two Senate seats, with consolidated vote shares clustered between roughly 8% and 20% and undecided or blank responses often exceeding 40%. High fragmentation stems from candidates aligned with competing gubernatorial tickets, broad name recognition among established figures, and limited differentiation on key state issues ahead of the October 4 vote. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, pricing several names competitively for second place while assigning minimal probability to the long list of other registered contenders. Further separation could emerge from campaign events, coalition consolidation, or shifts in voter turnout patterns in the final weeks.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$34,663End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Multiple recent polls, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from August 2026, show five leading candidates—Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL), Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), Germano Rigotto (MDB), Paulo Pimenta (PT), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL)—in a technical tie within margins of error for the two Senate seats, with consolidated vote shares clustered between roughly 8% and 20% and undecided or blank responses often exceeding 40%. High fragmentation stems from candidates aligned with competing gubernatorial tickets, broad name recognition among established figures, and limited differentiation on key state issues ahead of the October 4 vote. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, pricing several names competitively for second place while assigning minimal probability to the long list of other registered contenders. Further separation could emerge from campaign events, coalition consolidation, or shifts in voter turnout patterns in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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