Recent polling shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holding a clear lead for one Senate seat in the Federal District, leaving second place contested among incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT), Bia Kicis (PL), and Erika Kokay (PT) in a technical tie. The PL's decision to run both Michelle and Bia Kicis on a "chapa pura" has concentrated right-leaning support but created internal competition that shapes second-place probabilities. Large shares of undecided and blank/null voters, combined with the plurality block-voting system for two seats, keep outcomes fluid ahead of the October 4 election. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with recent surveys indicating Bia Kicis gaining in second-preference measures. Further shifts could arise from late-campaign turnout efforts, additional polling releases, or endorsements that consolidate support among the remaining undecided bloc.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBia Kicis 52.9%
Leila do Vôlei 44%
Michelle Bolsonaro 2.3%
Erika Kokay <1%
$44,698 Vol.
$44,698 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Bia Kicis
53%
Leila do Vôlei
34%
Michelle Bolsonaro
9%
Erika Kokay
1%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
David Horn
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
Marley
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Bia Kicis 52.9%
Leila do Vôlei 44%
Michelle Bolsonaro 2.3%
Erika Kokay <1%
$44,698 Vol.
$44,698 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Bia Kicis
$10,950 Vol.
53%
Leila do Vôlei
$15,660 Vol.
34%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$5,152 Vol.
9%
Erika Kokay
$7,037 Vol.
1%
Avenir Rosa
$437 Vol.
<1%
David Horn
$2,060 Vol.
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$381 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$392 Vol.
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$878 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$407 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$381 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$546 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$417 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holding a clear lead for one Senate seat in the Federal District, leaving second place contested among incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT), Bia Kicis (PL), and Erika Kokay (PT) in a technical tie. The PL's decision to run both Michelle and Bia Kicis on a "chapa pura" has concentrated right-leaning support but created internal competition that shapes second-place probabilities. Large shares of undecided and blank/null voters, combined with the plurality block-voting system for two seats, keep outcomes fluid ahead of the October 4 election. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with recent surveys indicating Bia Kicis gaining in second-preference measures. Further shifts could arise from late-campaign turnout efforts, additional polling releases, or endorsements that consolidate support among the remaining undecided bloc.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$44,698End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holding a clear lead for one Senate seat in the Federal District, leaving second place contested among incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT), Bia Kicis (PL), and Erika Kokay (PT) in a technical tie. The PL's decision to run both Michelle and Bia Kicis on a "chapa pura" has concentrated right-leaning support but created internal competition that shapes second-place probabilities. Large shares of undecided and blank/null voters, combined with the plurality block-voting system for two seats, keep outcomes fluid ahead of the October 4 election. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with recent surveys indicating Bia Kicis gaining in second-preference measures. Further shifts could arise from late-campaign turnout efforts, additional polling releases, or endorsements that consolidate support among the remaining undecided bloc.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$44,698End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holding a clear lead for one Senate seat in the Federal District, leaving second place contested among incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT), Bia Kicis (PL), and Erika Kokay (PT) in a technical tie. The PL's decision to run both Michelle and Bia Kicis on a "chapa pura" has concentrated right-leaning support but created internal competition that shapes second-place probabilities. Large shares of undecided and blank/null voters, combined with the plurality block-voting system for two seats, keep outcomes fluid ahead of the October 4 election. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with recent surveys indicating Bia Kicis gaining in second-preference measures. Further shifts could arise from late-campaign turnout efforts, additional polling releases, or endorsements that consolidate support among the remaining undecided bloc.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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