Lula maintains a commanding lead in Sergipe polling for the October 4 first round, with a recent Quaest survey showing 53% support against 19% for Flávio Bolsonaro and single-digit shares for other names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury. The state’s Northeast electorate has long favored the incumbent PT candidate, reinforced by 60% government approval and 50% positive management ratings in the same poll. Traders price the outcome at 98% because no credible consolidation of opposition votes or late campaign development has narrowed the gap in state-level surveys. A decisive first-round win in Sergipe would align with Lula’s broader regional strength, though an unusually sharp drop in turnout or an unexpected surge by a single right-leaning contender could still alter the final margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 97.8%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.3%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
$17,189 Vol.
$17,189 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
98%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Zema
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Lula 97.8%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.3%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
$17,189 Vol.
$17,189 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$9,024 Vol.
98%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$852 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$638 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$669 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$566 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$648 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$669 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$675 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$1,185 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$520 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$633 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$469 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$641 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Sergipe polling for the October 4 first round, with a recent Quaest survey showing 53% support against 19% for Flávio Bolsonaro and single-digit shares for other names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury. The state’s Northeast electorate has long favored the incumbent PT candidate, reinforced by 60% government approval and 50% positive management ratings in the same poll. Traders price the outcome at 98% because no credible consolidation of opposition votes or late campaign development has narrowed the gap in state-level surveys. A decisive first-round win in Sergipe would align with Lula’s broader regional strength, though an unusually sharp drop in turnout or an unexpected surge by a single right-leaning contender could still alter the final margin.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$17,189End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Sergipe polling for the October 4 first round, with a recent Quaest survey showing 53% support against 19% for Flávio Bolsonaro and single-digit shares for other names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury. The state’s Northeast electorate has long favored the incumbent PT candidate, reinforced by 60% government approval and 50% positive management ratings in the same poll. Traders price the outcome at 98% because no credible consolidation of opposition votes or late campaign development has narrowed the gap in state-level surveys. A decisive first-round win in Sergipe would align with Lula’s broader regional strength, though an unusually sharp drop in turnout or an unexpected surge by a single right-leaning contender could still alter the final margin.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$17,189End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Sergipe polling for the October 4 first round, with a recent Quaest survey showing 53% support against 19% for Flávio Bolsonaro and single-digit shares for other names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury. The state’s Northeast electorate has long favored the incumbent PT candidate, reinforced by 60% government approval and 50% positive management ratings in the same poll. Traders price the outcome at 98% because no credible consolidation of opposition votes or late campaign development has narrowed the gap in state-level surveys. A decisive first-round win in Sergipe would align with Lula’s broader regional strength, though an unusually sharp drop in turnout or an unexpected surge by a single right-leaning contender could still alter the final margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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