Renato Casagrande (PSB) holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo's Senate race, driven by his high name recognition as the outgoing three-term governor who resigned in April 2026 to pursue the seat. Recent polls from June through early September consistently place him at 28–52% in consolidated first- and second-vote scenarios, far ahead of competitors such as Sergio Meneguelli, Fabiano Contarato, Rose de Freitas, and Maguinha Malta, who cluster in the single digits amid a field of 11 registered candidates. Voters select two senators on October 4, amplifying Casagrande's frontrunner status through his established coalition backing and record of state-level results. The second seat remains more contested, with several candidates within polling margins. Late campaign developments or turnout shifts could still influence final margins, though Casagrande's position reflects sustained polling strength.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRenato Casagrande 96.2%
Maguinha Malta 1.1%
Leonardo Monjardim <1%
Callegari <1%
$13,120 Vol.
$13,120 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Renato Casagrande
96%
Maguinha Malta
1%
Leonardo Monjardim
1%
Callegari
1%
Marcos do Val
<1%
Fabiano Contarato
<1%
Rodney Miranda
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli
<1%
Professor Fabian
<1%
Evair de Melo
<1%
Rose de Freitas
<1%
Renato Casagrande 96.2%
Maguinha Malta 1.1%
Leonardo Monjardim <1%
Callegari <1%
$13,120 Vol.
$13,120 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Renato Casagrande
$5,895 Vol.
96%
Maguinha Malta
$976 Vol.
1%
Leonardo Monjardim
$829 Vol.
1%
Callegari
$804 Vol.
1%
Marcos do Val
$725 Vol.
<1%
Fabiano Contarato
$739 Vol.
<1%
Rodney Miranda
$711 Vol.
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli
$736 Vol.
<1%
Professor Fabian
$434 Vol.
<1%
Evair de Melo
$684 Vol.
<1%
Rose de Freitas
$587 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Renato Casagrande (PSB) holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo's Senate race, driven by his high name recognition as the outgoing three-term governor who resigned in April 2026 to pursue the seat. Recent polls from June through early September consistently place him at 28–52% in consolidated first- and second-vote scenarios, far ahead of competitors such as Sergio Meneguelli, Fabiano Contarato, Rose de Freitas, and Maguinha Malta, who cluster in the single digits amid a field of 11 registered candidates. Voters select two senators on October 4, amplifying Casagrande's frontrunner status through his established coalition backing and record of state-level results. The second seat remains more contested, with several candidates within polling margins. Late campaign developments or turnout shifts could still influence final margins, though Casagrande's position reflects sustained polling strength.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Volume
$13,120End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Renato Casagrande (PSB) holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo's Senate race, driven by his high name recognition as the outgoing three-term governor who resigned in April 2026 to pursue the seat. Recent polls from June through early September consistently place him at 28–52% in consolidated first- and second-vote scenarios, far ahead of competitors such as Sergio Meneguelli, Fabiano Contarato, Rose de Freitas, and Maguinha Malta, who cluster in the single digits amid a field of 11 registered candidates. Voters select two senators on October 4, amplifying Casagrande's frontrunner status through his established coalition backing and record of state-level results. The second seat remains more contested, with several candidates within polling margins. Late campaign developments or turnout shifts could still influence final margins, though Casagrande's position reflects sustained polling strength.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$13,120End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Renato Casagrande (PSB) holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo's Senate race, driven by his high name recognition as the outgoing three-term governor who resigned in April 2026 to pursue the seat. Recent polls from June through early September consistently place him at 28–52% in consolidated first- and second-vote scenarios, far ahead of competitors such as Sergio Meneguelli, Fabiano Contarato, Rose de Freitas, and Maguinha Malta, who cluster in the single digits amid a field of 11 registered candidates. Voters select two senators on October 4, amplifying Casagrande's frontrunner status through his established coalition backing and record of state-level results. The second seat remains more contested, with several candidates within polling margins. Late campaign developments or turnout shifts could still influence final margins, though Casagrande's position reflects sustained polling strength.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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