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icon for Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place

icon for Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place

Alexandre Guimarães 57%

Gaguim 31.3%

Eduardo Gomes 7.4%

Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro 3.5%

Polymarket

$25,761 Vol.

Alexandre Guimarães 57%

Gaguim 31.3%

Eduardo Gomes 7.4%

Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro 3.5%

Polymarket

$25,761 Vol.

icon for Alexandre Guimarães

Alexandre Guimarães

$13,917 Vol.

57%

icon for Gaguim

Gaguim

$2,842 Vol.

31%

icon for Eduardo Gomes

Eduardo Gomes

$1,282 Vol.

7%

icon for Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro

Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro

$364 Vol.

3%

icon for Paulo Mourão

Paulo Mourão

$4,410 Vol.

3%

icon for Vanderlei Luxemburgo

Vanderlei Luxemburgo

$386 Vol.

3%

icon for Osvany Luz

Osvany Luz

$418 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Dimas

Ronaldo Dimas

$342 Vol.

1%

icon for Eli Borges

Eli Borges

$489 Vol.

1%

icon for Nilton Santos

Nilton Santos

$358 Vol.

<1%

icon for Apóstolo Flavio Braga

Apóstolo Flavio Braga

$357 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fábio Ribeiro

Fábio Ribeiro

$311 Vol.

<1%

icon for Professor Osvaldo

Professor Osvaldo

$284 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) holds the strongest position for second place in Tocantins’ two-seat Senate race, consistent with polling trends through late August 2026.** Surveys from institutes including Paraná Pesquisas, Real Time Big Data, and Quaest show Senator Eduardo Gomes (PL) leading first-vote intentions, with Guimarães typically placing second and ahead of Carlos Gaguim (União), Irajá Abreu (PSD), Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos), and Ronaldo Dimas (Podemos). High undecided shares (often 30-70% in spontaneous scenarios) and vote fragmentation across 13 candidates keep the second seat competitive, though Guimarães benefits from lower rejection ratings compared with Gaguim and Irajá. Recent August polling reinforces this ordering without major reversals, while the October 4 first-round vote and ongoing campaign dynamics, including regional alliances and name recognition, remain the main variables that could alter second-place probabilities before election day.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$25,761
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) holds the strongest position for second place in Tocantins’ two-seat Senate race, consistent with polling trends through late August 2026.** Surveys from institutes including Paraná Pesquisas, Real Time Big Data, and Quaest show Senator Eduardo Gomes (PL) leading first-vote intentions, with Guimarães typically placing second and ahead of Carlos Gaguim (União), Irajá Abreu (PSD), Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos), and Ronaldo Dimas (Podemos). High undecided shares (often 30-70% in spontaneous scenarios) and vote fragmentation across 13 candidates keep the second seat competitive, though Guimarães benefits from lower rejection ratings compared with Gaguim and Irajá. Recent August polling reinforces this ordering without major reversals, while the October 4 first-round vote and ongoing campaign dynamics, including regional alliances and name recognition, remain the main variables that could alter second-place probabilities before election day.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$25,761
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Alexandre Guimarães" at 57%, followed by "Gaguim" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place" has generated $25.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place" is "Alexandre Guimarães" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gaguim" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.