Lula holds the strongest position in Tocantins first-round polling for the October 2026 presidential election, with recent August surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data showing him at 36-37% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 32-36%, ahead of Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and lower-polling names. Traders price Lula at 68.5% implied probability of finishing first in the state, reflecting consistent leads in local samples amid a polarized national race where the incumbent benefits from established PT support in the North. Flávio Bolsonaro sits at 31.5%, buoyed by right-wing consolidation but trailing in these state-specific results. Other candidates remain at minimal levels consistent with single-digit or lower statewide shares. The first-round vote on October 4 will determine advancement, with Tocantins outcomes sensitive to turnout among conservative and PT-leaning blocs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 69%
Flavio Bolsonaro 32%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
$22,731 Vol.
$22,731 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
69%
Flavio Bolsonaro
32%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Lula 69%
Flavio Bolsonaro 32%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
$22,731 Vol.
$22,731 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$5,799 Vol.
69%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$10,807 Vol.
32%
Edmilson Costa
$542 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$575 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$342 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$1,256 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$406 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$438 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$601 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$448 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$558 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$432 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$527 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the strongest position in Tocantins first-round polling for the October 2026 presidential election, with recent August surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data showing him at 36-37% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 32-36%, ahead of Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and lower-polling names. Traders price Lula at 68.5% implied probability of finishing first in the state, reflecting consistent leads in local samples amid a polarized national race where the incumbent benefits from established PT support in the North. Flávio Bolsonaro sits at 31.5%, buoyed by right-wing consolidation but trailing in these state-specific results. Other candidates remain at minimal levels consistent with single-digit or lower statewide shares. The first-round vote on October 4 will determine advancement, with Tocantins outcomes sensitive to turnout among conservative and PT-leaning blocs.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$22,731End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the strongest position in Tocantins first-round polling for the October 2026 presidential election, with recent August surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data showing him at 36-37% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 32-36%, ahead of Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and lower-polling names. Traders price Lula at 68.5% implied probability of finishing first in the state, reflecting consistent leads in local samples amid a polarized national race where the incumbent benefits from established PT support in the North. Flávio Bolsonaro sits at 31.5%, buoyed by right-wing consolidation but trailing in these state-specific results. Other candidates remain at minimal levels consistent with single-digit or lower statewide shares. The first-round vote on October 4 will determine advancement, with Tocantins outcomes sensitive to turnout among conservative and PT-leaning blocs.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$22,731End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds the strongest position in Tocantins first-round polling for the October 2026 presidential election, with recent August surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data showing him at 36-37% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 32-36%, ahead of Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and lower-polling names. Traders price Lula at 68.5% implied probability of finishing first in the state, reflecting consistent leads in local samples amid a polarized national race where the incumbent benefits from established PT support in the North. Flávio Bolsonaro sits at 31.5%, buoyed by right-wing consolidation but trailing in these state-specific results. Other candidates remain at minimal levels consistent with single-digit or lower statewide shares. The first-round vote on October 4 will determine advancement, with Tocantins outcomes sensitive to turnout among conservative and PT-leaning blocs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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