The Mato Grosso gubernatorial race stays tightly contested between incumbent Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos) and challenger Wellington Fagundes (PL), with late August and early September polls placing them within margins of error at roughly 27-40% each. Substantial undecided and blank/null shares of 20-30% continue to compress leads, while Doutora Natasha (PSD) registers single-digit to low-20s support and trails far behind. The October 4 first-round vote, followed by a possible runoff, leaves room for last-minute shifts from regional turnout patterns or coalition adjustments. Trader consensus prices the top two near parity, reflecting polling volatility and the absence of a clear frontrunner this close to election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOtaviano Pivetta 50%
Wellington Fagundes 48%
Doutora Natasha 1.4%
Mauricio Coelho <1%
$27,645 Vol.
$27,645 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Otaviano Pivetta
50%
Wellington Fagundes
48%
Doutora Natasha
1%
Mauricio Coelho
<1%
Rafaell Milas
<1%
Sargento Laudicério
<1%
Otaviano Pivetta 50%
Wellington Fagundes 48%
Doutora Natasha 1.4%
Mauricio Coelho <1%
$27,645 Vol.
$27,645 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Otaviano Pivetta
$8,890 Vol.
50%
Wellington Fagundes
$14,413 Vol.
48%
Doutora Natasha
$1,397 Vol.
1%
Mauricio Coelho
$1,386 Vol.
<1%
Rafaell Milas
$870 Vol.
<1%
Sargento Laudicério
$689 Vol.
<1%
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Mato Grosso gubernatorial race stays tightly contested between incumbent Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos) and challenger Wellington Fagundes (PL), with late August and early September polls placing them within margins of error at roughly 27-40% each. Substantial undecided and blank/null shares of 20-30% continue to compress leads, while Doutora Natasha (PSD) registers single-digit to low-20s support and trails far behind. The October 4 first-round vote, followed by a possible runoff, leaves room for last-minute shifts from regional turnout patterns or coalition adjustments. Trader consensus prices the top two near parity, reflecting polling volatility and the absence of a clear frontrunner this close to election day.
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ET
Volume
$27,645End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Mato Grosso gubernatorial race stays tightly contested between incumbent Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos) and challenger Wellington Fagundes (PL), with late August and early September polls placing them within margins of error at roughly 27-40% each. Substantial undecided and blank/null shares of 20-30% continue to compress leads, while Doutora Natasha (PSD) registers single-digit to low-20s support and trails far behind. The October 4 first-round vote, followed by a possible runoff, leaves room for last-minute shifts from regional turnout patterns or coalition adjustments. Trader consensus prices the top two near parity, reflecting polling volatility and the absence of a clear frontrunner this close to election day.
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$27,645End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Mato Grosso gubernatorial race stays tightly contested between incumbent Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos) and challenger Wellington Fagundes (PL), with late August and early September polls placing them within margins of error at roughly 27-40% each. Substantial undecided and blank/null shares of 20-30% continue to compress leads, while Doutora Natasha (PSD) registers single-digit to low-20s support and trails far behind. The October 4 first-round vote, followed by a possible runoff, leaves room for last-minute shifts from regional turnout patterns or coalition adjustments. Trader consensus prices the top two near parity, reflecting polling volatility and the absence of a clear frontrunner this close to election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions