Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará first-round polling for the 2026 presidential election, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data placing him at 41% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 31% and fragmented support for others such as Augusto Cury and Renan Santos in single digits. Incumbency advantages, regional voter patterns favoring the PT in northern states, and limited campaign traction for challengers underpin trader consensus on his frontrunner status. A tightening national race reflected in some aggregators could still shift momentum if opposition consolidation or late developments alter turnout dynamics before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 94%
Flavio Bolsonaro 4.5%
Ronaldo Caiado 2.5%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
$17,480 Vol.
$17,480 Vol.

Lula
94%

Flavio Bolsonaro
5%

Ronaldo Caiado
3%

Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%

Hertz Dias
<1%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%

Clariana Barao
<1%

Edmilson Costa
<1%

Pablo Marçal
<1%

Samara
<1%

Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%

Renan Santos
<1%

Zema
<1%
Lula 94%
Flavio Bolsonaro 4.5%
Ronaldo Caiado 2.5%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
$17,480 Vol.
$17,480 Vol.

Lula
94%

Flavio Bolsonaro
5%

Ronaldo Caiado
3%

Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%

Hertz Dias
<1%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%

Clariana Barao
<1%

Edmilson Costa
<1%

Pablo Marçal
<1%

Samara
<1%

Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%

Renan Santos
<1%

Zema
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará first-round polling for the 2026 presidential election, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data placing him at 41% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 31% and fragmented support for others such as Augusto Cury and Renan Santos in single digits. Incumbency advantages, regional voter patterns favoring the PT in northern states, and limited campaign traction for challengers underpin trader consensus on his frontrunner status. A tightening national race reflected in some aggregators could still shift momentum if opposition consolidation or late developments alter turnout dynamics before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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