Ciro Gomes (PSDB) holds a 62.5% implied probability in the Ceará gubernatorial race, ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT) at 38%, reflecting his consistent lead or technical tie in recent polling. Datafolha and Quaest surveys from late August and early September showed Ciro at 45-46% versus Elmano's 34-37% in the first round, while a Real Time Big Data poll indicated a statistical dead heat at 43-46%. Ciro benefits from alliances with center-right and right-leaning parties including PL and União Brasil, positioning him to challenge PT dominance after three consecutive terms. Elmano draws support from the Workers' Party base and President Lula's endorsement, though his numbers have risen modestly as the October 4 first-round vote approaches. Minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão remain below 1% and are unlikely to alter the two-way contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCeará Governor Election Winner
Ceará Governor Election Winner
Ciro Gomes 63%
Elmano de Freitas 38%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Roberto Cláudio <1%
$216,098 Vol.
$216,098 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Ciro Gomes
63%
Elmano de Freitas
38%
Eduardo Girão
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Capitão Wagner
<1%
Ciro Gomes 63%
Elmano de Freitas 38%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Roberto Cláudio <1%
$216,098 Vol.
$216,098 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Ciro Gomes
$102,096 Vol.
63%
Elmano de Freitas
$43,123 Vol.
38%
Eduardo Girão
$18,393 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
$18,024 Vol.
<1%
Camilo Santana
$16,424 Vol.
<1%
Capitão Wagner
$18,039 Vol.
<1%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes (PSDB) holds a 62.5% implied probability in the Ceará gubernatorial race, ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT) at 38%, reflecting his consistent lead or technical tie in recent polling. Datafolha and Quaest surveys from late August and early September showed Ciro at 45-46% versus Elmano's 34-37% in the first round, while a Real Time Big Data poll indicated a statistical dead heat at 43-46%. Ciro benefits from alliances with center-right and right-leaning parties including PL and União Brasil, positioning him to challenge PT dominance after three consecutive terms. Elmano draws support from the Workers' Party base and President Lula's endorsement, though his numbers have risen modestly as the October 4 first-round vote approaches. Minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão remain below 1% and are unlikely to alter the two-way contest.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volume
$216,098End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes (PSDB) holds a 62.5% implied probability in the Ceará gubernatorial race, ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT) at 38%, reflecting his consistent lead or technical tie in recent polling. Datafolha and Quaest surveys from late August and early September showed Ciro at 45-46% versus Elmano's 34-37% in the first round, while a Real Time Big Data poll indicated a statistical dead heat at 43-46%. Ciro benefits from alliances with center-right and right-leaning parties including PL and União Brasil, positioning him to challenge PT dominance after three consecutive terms. Elmano draws support from the Workers' Party base and President Lula's endorsement, though his numbers have risen modestly as the October 4 first-round vote approaches. Minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão remain below 1% and are unlikely to alter the two-way contest.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$216,098End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ciro Gomes (PSDB) holds a 62.5% implied probability in the Ceará gubernatorial race, ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT) at 38%, reflecting his consistent lead or technical tie in recent polling. Datafolha and Quaest surveys from late August and early September showed Ciro at 45-46% versus Elmano's 34-37% in the first round, while a Real Time Big Data poll indicated a statistical dead heat at 43-46%. Ciro benefits from alliances with center-right and right-leaning parties including PL and União Brasil, positioning him to challenge PT dominance after three consecutive terms. Elmano draws support from the Workers' Party base and President Lula's endorsement, though his numbers have risen modestly as the October 4 first-round vote approaches. Minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão remain below 1% and are unlikely to alter the two-way contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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