Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Santa Catarina first-round polling for the October 4, 2026, presidential election, with recent state surveys showing him at 45-50% support against Lula at around 20-25% and other candidates in single digits. This regional dominance stems from the state's consistent right-leaning voter patterns, where the Liberal Party candidate has maintained double-digit leads across multiple polls since mid-2026, including those from Quaest and Neokemp. Trader consensus at 97% aligns with these local results and the limited movement among challengers such as Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado. A shift could occur through sharp late-campaign gains by minor candidates, unexpected turnout changes, or national events that alter voter priorities before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Santa Catarina
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Santa Catarina
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.0%
Lula <1%
Zema <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
97%
Lula
1%
Zema
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Samara
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.0%
Lula <1%
Zema <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,876 Vol.
97%
Lula
$325 Vol.
1%
Zema
$298 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$298 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$329 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$299 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$299 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$299 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$299 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$299 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$399 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$289 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$399 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Santa Catarina first-round polling for the October 4, 2026, presidential election, with recent state surveys showing him at 45-50% support against Lula at around 20-25% and other candidates in single digits. This regional dominance stems from the state's consistent right-leaning voter patterns, where the Liberal Party candidate has maintained double-digit leads across multiple polls since mid-2026, including those from Quaest and Neokemp. Trader consensus at 97% aligns with these local results and the limited movement among challengers such as Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado. A shift could occur through sharp late-campaign gains by minor candidates, unexpected turnout changes, or national events that alter voter priorities before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$5,705End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Santa Catarina first-round polling for the October 4, 2026, presidential election, with recent state surveys showing him at 45-50% support against Lula at around 20-25% and other candidates in single digits. This regional dominance stems from the state's consistent right-leaning voter patterns, where the Liberal Party candidate has maintained double-digit leads across multiple polls since mid-2026, including those from Quaest and Neokemp. Trader consensus at 97% aligns with these local results and the limited movement among challengers such as Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado. A shift could occur through sharp late-campaign gains by minor candidates, unexpected turnout changes, or national events that alter voter priorities before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$5,705End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Santa Catarina first-round polling for the October 4, 2026, presidential election, with recent state surveys showing him at 45-50% support against Lula at around 20-25% and other candidates in single digits. This regional dominance stems from the state's consistent right-leaning voter patterns, where the Liberal Party candidate has maintained double-digit leads across multiple polls since mid-2026, including those from Quaest and Neokemp. Trader consensus at 97% aligns with these local results and the limited movement among challengers such as Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado. A shift could occur through sharp late-campaign gains by minor candidates, unexpected turnout changes, or national events that alter voter priorities before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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