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icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner

Lula 84%

Flavio Bolsonaro 16%

Renan Santos <1%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Polymarket

$44,846 Vol.

Lula 84%

Flavio Bolsonaro 16%

Renan Santos <1%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Polymarket

$44,846 Vol.

icon for Lula

Lula

$15,457 Vol.

84%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$13,136 Vol.

16%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$4,462 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$4,126 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$3,997 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$477 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$288 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$296 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$296 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$316 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$259 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$546 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$1,189 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds an 83.5% implied probability as first-round winner in the October 4, 2026, Brazilian presidential election, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 16%, with other candidates at 0.1–6.6% in recent surveys. Multiple polls from Quaest, Datafolha, Meio/Ideia, and Nexus through early September show the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate leading first-round intentions in the mid-to-high 30s percent, while Flávio trails in the low-to-mid 30s and minor candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos remain in single digits. The right-wing vote continues to fragment across several registered contenders, preserving Lula’s plurality advantage even as runoff simulations tighten to near parity. Campaign activity, including candidate registrations finalized in August and ongoing advertising, has not altered this first-round structure. Traders price in the structural edge from incumbency and vote splitting ahead of the October 4 ballot.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$44,846
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds an 83.5% implied probability as first-round winner in the October 4, 2026, Brazilian presidential election, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 16%, with other candidates at 0.1–6.6% in recent surveys. Multiple polls from Quaest, Datafolha, Meio/Ideia, and Nexus through early September show the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate leading first-round intentions in the mid-to-high 30s percent, while Flávio trails in the low-to-mid 30s and minor candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos remain in single digits. The right-wing vote continues to fragment across several registered contenders, preserving Lula’s plurality advantage even as runoff simulations tighten to near parity. Campaign activity, including candidate registrations finalized in August and ongoing advertising, has not altered this first-round structure. Traders price in the structural edge from incumbency and vote splitting ahead of the October 4 ballot.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$44,846
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lula" at 84%, followed by "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner" has generated $44.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 31, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner" is "Lula" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.