Recent polling from early September shows a fragmented contest for Maranhão’s two Senate seats, with Roseana Sarney (MDB) at 18% and four others—André Fufuca (PP), Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO), incumbent Weverton Rocha (PDT), and Eliziane Gama (PT)—clustered between 14-15% and within the margin of error. High undecided and blank/null shares (roughly 16-36% across surveys) and the two-vote system sustain volatility in positioning for second place. Trader consensus reflects Weverton’s incumbency edge and reported gubernatorial backing alongside Lahesio’s and Fufuca’s rising profiles, while Roseana’s name recognition anchors first-place probabilities. No decisive late-campaign shifts have emerged to separate the group ahead of the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWeverton Rocha 34%
Lahesio Bonfim 28.3%
Fufuca 23%
Roseana Sarney 12%
$35,039 Vol.
$35,039 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Weverton Rocha
34%
Lahesio Bonfim
28%
Fufuca
23%
Roseana Sarney
12%
Eliziane Gama
8%
Raimundo Moreira
1%
Wilson Leite
<1%
Enilton Rodrigues
<1%
Dr. Hilton Gonçalo
<1%
Cidônio Gonçalves
<1%
Simplício Araújo
<1%
Weverton Rocha 34%
Lahesio Bonfim 28.3%
Fufuca 23%
Roseana Sarney 12%
$35,039 Vol.
$35,039 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Weverton Rocha
$12,943 Vol.
34%
Lahesio Bonfim
$2,277 Vol.
28%
Fufuca
$5,749 Vol.
23%
Roseana Sarney
$8,265 Vol.
12%
Eliziane Gama
$1,639 Vol.
8%
Raimundo Moreira
$621 Vol.
1%
Wilson Leite
$633 Vol.
<1%
Enilton Rodrigues
$692 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Hilton Gonçalo
$995 Vol.
<1%
Cidônio Gonçalves
$519 Vol.
<1%
Simplício Araújo
$706 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from early September shows a fragmented contest for Maranhão’s two Senate seats, with Roseana Sarney (MDB) at 18% and four others—André Fufuca (PP), Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO), incumbent Weverton Rocha (PDT), and Eliziane Gama (PT)—clustered between 14-15% and within the margin of error. High undecided and blank/null shares (roughly 16-36% across surveys) and the two-vote system sustain volatility in positioning for second place. Trader consensus reflects Weverton’s incumbency edge and reported gubernatorial backing alongside Lahesio’s and Fufuca’s rising profiles, while Roseana’s name recognition anchors first-place probabilities. No decisive late-campaign shifts have emerged to separate the group ahead of the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ET
Volume
$35,039End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from early September shows a fragmented contest for Maranhão’s two Senate seats, with Roseana Sarney (MDB) at 18% and four others—André Fufuca (PP), Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO), incumbent Weverton Rocha (PDT), and Eliziane Gama (PT)—clustered between 14-15% and within the margin of error. High undecided and blank/null shares (roughly 16-36% across surveys) and the two-vote system sustain volatility in positioning for second place. Trader consensus reflects Weverton’s incumbency edge and reported gubernatorial backing alongside Lahesio’s and Fufuca’s rising profiles, while Roseana’s name recognition anchors first-place probabilities. No decisive late-campaign shifts have emerged to separate the group ahead of the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$35,039End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from early September shows a fragmented contest for Maranhão’s two Senate seats, with Roseana Sarney (MDB) at 18% and four others—André Fufuca (PP), Lahesio Bonfim (NOVO), incumbent Weverton Rocha (PDT), and Eliziane Gama (PT)—clustered between 14-15% and within the margin of error. High undecided and blank/null shares (roughly 16-36% across surveys) and the two-vote system sustain volatility in positioning for second place. Trader consensus reflects Weverton’s incumbency edge and reported gubernatorial backing alongside Lahesio’s and Fufuca’s rising profiles, while Roseana’s name recognition anchors first-place probabilities. No decisive late-campaign shifts have emerged to separate the group ahead of the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions