Recent polling in Amapá’s October 4 Senate race shows Rayssa Furlan (PODE) consistently leading for one seat, leaving the second position contested primarily between incumbent Randolfe Rodrigues (PT) and Lucas Barreto (PSD). Multiple surveys from August and early September place the two within or near the margin of error, with Randolfe often edging Barreto in combined first- and second-vote intentions while Alliny Serrão and Acácio Favacho trail further back. Trader pricing reflects this narrow contest, with Randolfe holding the highest implied probability for second place. Key near-term catalysts include the September 25 debate and final weeks of campaigning, which could shift undecided voters or consolidate support behind the two re-election bids in a state where each elector selects two candidates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRandolfe 46%
Lucas Barreto 40%
Alliny Serrão 7%
Capi 4.0%
$16,488 Vol.
$16,488 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Randolfe
46%
Lucas Barreto
36%
Alliny Serrão
7%
Capi
4%
Rayssa Furlan
3%
Professor Uzian Pinto
3%
Acácio Favacho
3%
Juíza Jô
3%
Helio Silva
1%
Randolfe 46%
Lucas Barreto 40%
Alliny Serrão 7%
Capi 4.0%
$16,488 Vol.
$16,488 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Randolfe
$8,911 Vol.
46%
Lucas Barreto
$3,421 Vol.
36%
Alliny Serrão
$645 Vol.
7%
Capi
$237 Vol.
4%
Rayssa Furlan
$282 Vol.
3%
Professor Uzian Pinto
$511 Vol.
3%
Acácio Favacho
$482 Vol.
3%
Juíza Jô
$184 Vol.
3%
Helio Silva
$1,816 Vol.
1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Amapá’s October 4 Senate race shows Rayssa Furlan (PODE) consistently leading for one seat, leaving the second position contested primarily between incumbent Randolfe Rodrigues (PT) and Lucas Barreto (PSD). Multiple surveys from August and early September place the two within or near the margin of error, with Randolfe often edging Barreto in combined first- and second-vote intentions while Alliny Serrão and Acácio Favacho trail further back. Trader pricing reflects this narrow contest, with Randolfe holding the highest implied probability for second place. Key near-term catalysts include the September 25 debate and final weeks of campaigning, which could shift undecided voters or consolidate support behind the two re-election bids in a state where each elector selects two candidates.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:54 AM ET
Volume
$16,488End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Amapá’s October 4 Senate race shows Rayssa Furlan (PODE) consistently leading for one seat, leaving the second position contested primarily between incumbent Randolfe Rodrigues (PT) and Lucas Barreto (PSD). Multiple surveys from August and early September place the two within or near the margin of error, with Randolfe often edging Barreto in combined first- and second-vote intentions while Alliny Serrão and Acácio Favacho trail further back. Trader pricing reflects this narrow contest, with Randolfe holding the highest implied probability for second place. Key near-term catalysts include the September 25 debate and final weeks of campaigning, which could shift undecided voters or consolidate support behind the two re-election bids in a state where each elector selects two candidates.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$16,488End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in Amapá’s October 4 Senate race shows Rayssa Furlan (PODE) consistently leading for one seat, leaving the second position contested primarily between incumbent Randolfe Rodrigues (PT) and Lucas Barreto (PSD). Multiple surveys from August and early September place the two within or near the margin of error, with Randolfe often edging Barreto in combined first- and second-vote intentions while Alliny Serrão and Acácio Favacho trail further back. Trader pricing reflects this narrow contest, with Randolfe holding the highest implied probability for second place. Key near-term catalysts include the September 25 debate and final weeks of campaigning, which could shift undecided voters or consolidate support behind the two re-election bids in a state where each elector selects two candidates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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