Recent polls from early September show incumbent Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) in a technical tie for the Bahia governorship, with first-round support at 45% and 44% respectively and similar margins in runoff simulations. Both candidates register high rejection rates near 45%, limiting their ability to consolidate undecided voters or expand beyond core bases in a polarized state electorate. The race remains competitive because Jerônimo’s government approval near 53% has not produced a decisive lead, while ACM Neto maintains strong support in Salvador and among opposition-leaning segments. Minor candidates register negligible shares. Separation could emerge from turnout patterns in key municipalities, scheduled debates, or shifts in coalition alignments ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJerônimo Rodrigues 53%
ACM Neto 48%
João Roma <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$139,526 Vol.
$139,526 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
53%
ACM Neto
48%
João Roma
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 53%
ACM Neto 48%
João Roma <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$139,526 Vol.
$139,526 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$45,076 Vol.
53%
ACM Neto
$52,326 Vol.
48%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$13,880 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$11,986 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from early September show incumbent Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) in a technical tie for the Bahia governorship, with first-round support at 45% and 44% respectively and similar margins in runoff simulations. Both candidates register high rejection rates near 45%, limiting their ability to consolidate undecided voters or expand beyond core bases in a polarized state electorate. The race remains competitive because Jerônimo’s government approval near 53% has not produced a decisive lead, while ACM Neto maintains strong support in Salvador and among opposition-leaning segments. Minor candidates register negligible shares. Separation could emerge from turnout patterns in key municipalities, scheduled debates, or shifts in coalition alignments ahead of the October vote.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$139,526End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from early September show incumbent Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) in a technical tie for the Bahia governorship, with first-round support at 45% and 44% respectively and similar margins in runoff simulations. Both candidates register high rejection rates near 45%, limiting their ability to consolidate undecided voters or expand beyond core bases in a polarized state electorate. The race remains competitive because Jerônimo’s government approval near 53% has not produced a decisive lead, while ACM Neto maintains strong support in Salvador and among opposition-leaning segments. Minor candidates register negligible shares. Separation could emerge from turnout patterns in key municipalities, scheduled debates, or shifts in coalition alignments ahead of the October vote.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$139,526End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from early September show incumbent Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) in a technical tie for the Bahia governorship, with first-round support at 45% and 44% respectively and similar margins in runoff simulations. Both candidates register high rejection rates near 45%, limiting their ability to consolidate undecided voters or expand beyond core bases in a polarized state electorate. The race remains competitive because Jerônimo’s government approval near 53% has not produced a decisive lead, while ACM Neto maintains strong support in Salvador and among opposition-leaning segments. Minor candidates register negligible shares. Separation could emerge from turnout patterns in key municipalities, scheduled debates, or shifts in coalition alignments ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions