Rayssa Furlan (Podemos) holds an 88% implied probability for first place in the Amapá Senate race because recent polls show her consistently leading or tied at the top of voter intentions. A late-August Quaest survey gave her 27% support versus 19% for Randolfe Rodrigues (PT) and 18% for incumbent Lucas Barreto (PSD), while a September Veritá poll showed her at 25.4% and Barreto at 22.6%. Her visibility stems from a strong 2022 Senate showing, her role as former first lady of Macapá, and her coalition backing. The October 4 first-round vote features two seats, with each voter selecting up to two candidates; the campaign period began in mid-August and features scheduled debates through late September. Lower probabilities for other contenders reflect their weaker polling and limited recent momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRayssa Furlan 88%
Randolfe 4.8%
Lucas Barreto 4.0%
Alliny Serrão <1%
$33,923 Vol.
$33,923 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rayssa Furlan
88%
Randolfe
5%
Lucas Barreto
4%
Alliny Serrão
1%
Acácio Favacho
<1%
Helio Silva
<1%
Juíza Jô
<1%
Professor Uzian Pinto
<1%
Capi
<1%
Rayssa Furlan 88%
Randolfe 4.8%
Lucas Barreto 4.0%
Alliny Serrão <1%
$33,923 Vol.
$33,923 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rayssa Furlan
$25,669 Vol.
88%
Randolfe
$1,462 Vol.
5%
Lucas Barreto
$1,457 Vol.
4%
Alliny Serrão
$1,212 Vol.
1%
Acácio Favacho
$884 Vol.
<1%
Helio Silva
$578 Vol.
<1%
Juíza Jô
$957 Vol.
<1%
Professor Uzian Pinto
$952 Vol.
<1%
Capi
$751 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rayssa Furlan (Podemos) holds an 88% implied probability for first place in the Amapá Senate race because recent polls show her consistently leading or tied at the top of voter intentions. A late-August Quaest survey gave her 27% support versus 19% for Randolfe Rodrigues (PT) and 18% for incumbent Lucas Barreto (PSD), while a September Veritá poll showed her at 25.4% and Barreto at 22.6%. Her visibility stems from a strong 2022 Senate showing, her role as former first lady of Macapá, and her coalition backing. The October 4 first-round vote features two seats, with each voter selecting up to two candidates; the campaign period began in mid-August and features scheduled debates through late September. Lower probabilities for other contenders reflect their weaker polling and limited recent momentum.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:54 AM ET
Volume
$33,923End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rayssa Furlan (Podemos) holds an 88% implied probability for first place in the Amapá Senate race because recent polls show her consistently leading or tied at the top of voter intentions. A late-August Quaest survey gave her 27% support versus 19% for Randolfe Rodrigues (PT) and 18% for incumbent Lucas Barreto (PSD), while a September Veritá poll showed her at 25.4% and Barreto at 22.6%. Her visibility stems from a strong 2022 Senate showing, her role as former first lady of Macapá, and her coalition backing. The October 4 first-round vote features two seats, with each voter selecting up to two candidates; the campaign period began in mid-August and features scheduled debates through late September. Lower probabilities for other contenders reflect their weaker polling and limited recent momentum.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$33,923End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rayssa Furlan (Podemos) holds an 88% implied probability for first place in the Amapá Senate race because recent polls show her consistently leading or tied at the top of voter intentions. A late-August Quaest survey gave her 27% support versus 19% for Randolfe Rodrigues (PT) and 18% for incumbent Lucas Barreto (PSD), while a September Veritá poll showed her at 25.4% and Barreto at 22.6%. Her visibility stems from a strong 2022 Senate showing, her role as former first lady of Macapá, and her coalition backing. The October 4 first-round vote features two seats, with each voter selecting up to two candidates; the campaign period began in mid-August and features scheduled debates through late September. Lower probabilities for other contenders reflect their weaker polling and limited recent momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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