Helder Barbalho leads the Pará Senate race with an 80% implied probability for first place, reflecting his status as the MDB candidate backed by a wide coalition that includes PT, PSD, Republicanos, and others. Recent polls show him capturing 36% of combined first- and second-choice votes, far ahead of rivals such as Delegado Éder Mauro at 17% and Celso Sabino at 12%. Barbalho's advantage stems from high name recognition after two terms as governor, family political infrastructure, and the decision to step down early to comply with eligibility rules. The October 4 election features two seats, yet his margin in surveys has remained stable through early September, limiting momentum for challengers like Zequinha Marinho or lower-polling names.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHelder 80%
Delegado Éder Mauro 9.9%
Zequinha Marinho 4.0%
Edlaine Rodrigues 2.0%
$17,237 Vol.
$17,237 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Helder
80%
Delegado Éder Mauro
10%
Zequinha Marinho
4%
Edlaine Rodrigues
2%
Breno Guimarães
1%
Celso Sabino
1%
Fernanda Lopes
1%
Conti
<1%
Gizelle Freitas
<1%
Chicão
<1%
Willem da Silva
<1%
Helder 80%
Delegado Éder Mauro 9.9%
Zequinha Marinho 4.0%
Edlaine Rodrigues 2.0%
$17,237 Vol.
$17,237 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Helder
$11,644 Vol.
80%
Delegado Éder Mauro
$635 Vol.
10%
Zequinha Marinho
$569 Vol.
4%
Edlaine Rodrigues
$600 Vol.
2%
Breno Guimarães
$529 Vol.
1%
Celso Sabino
$499 Vol.
1%
Fernanda Lopes
$726 Vol.
1%
Conti
$551 Vol.
<1%
Gizelle Freitas
$562 Vol.
<1%
Chicão
$488 Vol.
<1%
Willem da Silva
$436 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Helder Barbalho leads the Pará Senate race with an 80% implied probability for first place, reflecting his status as the MDB candidate backed by a wide coalition that includes PT, PSD, Republicanos, and others. Recent polls show him capturing 36% of combined first- and second-choice votes, far ahead of rivals such as Delegado Éder Mauro at 17% and Celso Sabino at 12%. Barbalho's advantage stems from high name recognition after two terms as governor, family political infrastructure, and the decision to step down early to comply with eligibility rules. The October 4 election features two seats, yet his margin in surveys has remained stable through early September, limiting momentum for challengers like Zequinha Marinho or lower-polling names.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$17,237End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Helder Barbalho leads the Pará Senate race with an 80% implied probability for first place, reflecting his status as the MDB candidate backed by a wide coalition that includes PT, PSD, Republicanos, and others. Recent polls show him capturing 36% of combined first- and second-choice votes, far ahead of rivals such as Delegado Éder Mauro at 17% and Celso Sabino at 12%. Barbalho's advantage stems from high name recognition after two terms as governor, family political infrastructure, and the decision to step down early to comply with eligibility rules. The October 4 election features two seats, yet his margin in surveys has remained stable through early September, limiting momentum for challengers like Zequinha Marinho or lower-polling names.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$17,237End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Helder Barbalho leads the Pará Senate race with an 80% implied probability for first place, reflecting his status as the MDB candidate backed by a wide coalition that includes PT, PSD, Republicanos, and others. Recent polls show him capturing 36% of combined first- and second-choice votes, far ahead of rivals such as Delegado Éder Mauro at 17% and Celso Sabino at 12%. Barbalho's advantage stems from high name recognition after two terms as governor, family political infrastructure, and the decision to step down early to comply with eligibility rules. The October 4 election features two seats, yet his margin in surveys has remained stable through early September, limiting momentum for challengers like Zequinha Marinho or lower-polling names.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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