The tight contest for second place in Alagoas’s two-seat Senate race reflects the state’s single-round, two-vote system and recent candidate realignments after Alfredo Gaspar withdrew to run for vice president. Arthur Lira (PP), Renan Calheiros (MDB), and Marina JHC (PSDB) remain the leading contenders in late-August polling, with combined first- and second-choice support showing them within margins of error amid 15–20% undecided or blank responses. Lira and Calheiros benefit from high federal name recognition and established coalitions, while Marina JHC’s late entry tied to the JHC group has narrowed gaps but faces challenges building interior support. Davi Davino Filho trails further back. Legal questions around registrations and low spontaneous voter awareness continue to sustain uncertainty ahead of the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRenan 39%
Arthur Lira 37%
Marina JHC 24%
Davi Davino Filho 2.6%
$24,841 Vol.
$24,841 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Renan
39%
Arthur Lira
37%
Marina JHC
24%
Davi Davino Filho
3%
Dr. Wanderley
1%
Alexandre Fleming
<1%
Mariedson
<1%
Renan 39%
Arthur Lira 37%
Marina JHC 24%
Davi Davino Filho 2.6%
$24,841 Vol.
$24,841 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Renan
$9,474 Vol.
39%
Arthur Lira
$6,158 Vol.
37%
Marina JHC
$5,248 Vol.
24%
Davi Davino Filho
$1,076 Vol.
3%
Dr. Wanderley
$1,406 Vol.
1%
Alexandre Fleming
$716 Vol.
<1%
Mariedson
$763 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for second place in Alagoas’s two-seat Senate race reflects the state’s single-round, two-vote system and recent candidate realignments after Alfredo Gaspar withdrew to run for vice president. Arthur Lira (PP), Renan Calheiros (MDB), and Marina JHC (PSDB) remain the leading contenders in late-August polling, with combined first- and second-choice support showing them within margins of error amid 15–20% undecided or blank responses. Lira and Calheiros benefit from high federal name recognition and established coalitions, while Marina JHC’s late entry tied to the JHC group has narrowed gaps but faces challenges building interior support. Davi Davino Filho trails further back. Legal questions around registrations and low spontaneous voter awareness continue to sustain uncertainty ahead of the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ET
Volume
$24,841End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for second place in Alagoas’s two-seat Senate race reflects the state’s single-round, two-vote system and recent candidate realignments after Alfredo Gaspar withdrew to run for vice president. Arthur Lira (PP), Renan Calheiros (MDB), and Marina JHC (PSDB) remain the leading contenders in late-August polling, with combined first- and second-choice support showing them within margins of error amid 15–20% undecided or blank responses. Lira and Calheiros benefit from high federal name recognition and established coalitions, while Marina JHC’s late entry tied to the JHC group has narrowed gaps but faces challenges building interior support. Davi Davino Filho trails further back. Legal questions around registrations and low spontaneous voter awareness continue to sustain uncertainty ahead of the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$24,841End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight contest for second place in Alagoas’s two-seat Senate race reflects the state’s single-round, two-vote system and recent candidate realignments after Alfredo Gaspar withdrew to run for vice president. Arthur Lira (PP), Renan Calheiros (MDB), and Marina JHC (PSDB) remain the leading contenders in late-August polling, with combined first- and second-choice support showing them within margins of error amid 15–20% undecided or blank responses. Lira and Calheiros benefit from high federal name recognition and established coalitions, while Marina JHC’s late entry tied to the JHC group has narrowed gaps but faces challenges building interior support. Davi Davino Filho trails further back. Legal questions around registrations and low spontaneous voter awareness continue to sustain uncertainty ahead of the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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