Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding lead in recent polls for the top Senate spot in Brazil’s Federal District, where voters select two candidates on October 4. Datafolha (September 11) and Igape (September 13) show her at 34% and 27.9% respectively on first-choice votes, well ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT), Erika Kokay (PT), and Bia Kicis (PL). Her margin has widened modestly since August amid stable name recognition tied to the Bolsonaro family and PL support. Lower-polling candidates remain fragmented, with no late surge or major campaign event shifting first-preference momentum in the past week. Trader consensus prices reflect this sustained polling gap for the outright first-place outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMichelle Bolsonaro 85%
Leila do Vôlei 8.8%
Bia Kicis 5.3%
Erika Kokay 4.2%
$29,066 Vol.
$29,066 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
85%
Leila do Vôlei
7%
Bia Kicis
5%
Erika Kokay
4%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
David Horn
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
Marley
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro 85%
Leila do Vôlei 8.8%
Bia Kicis 5.3%
Erika Kokay 4.2%
$29,066 Vol.
$29,066 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
$12,540 Vol.
85%
Leila do Vôlei
$4,387 Vol.
7%
Bia Kicis
$4,494 Vol.
5%
Erika Kokay
$2,120 Vol.
4%
Avenir Rosa
$801 Vol.
<1%
David Horn
$505 Vol.
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$794 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$381 Vol.
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$795 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$674 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$556 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$489 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$530 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding lead in recent polls for the top Senate spot in Brazil’s Federal District, where voters select two candidates on October 4. Datafolha (September 11) and Igape (September 13) show her at 34% and 27.9% respectively on first-choice votes, well ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT), Erika Kokay (PT), and Bia Kicis (PL). Her margin has widened modestly since August amid stable name recognition tied to the Bolsonaro family and PL support. Lower-polling candidates remain fragmented, with no late surge or major campaign event shifting first-preference momentum in the past week. Trader consensus prices reflect this sustained polling gap for the outright first-place outcome.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$29,066End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding lead in recent polls for the top Senate spot in Brazil’s Federal District, where voters select two candidates on October 4. Datafolha (September 11) and Igape (September 13) show her at 34% and 27.9% respectively on first-choice votes, well ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT), Erika Kokay (PT), and Bia Kicis (PL). Her margin has widened modestly since August amid stable name recognition tied to the Bolsonaro family and PL support. Lower-polling candidates remain fragmented, with no late surge or major campaign event shifting first-preference momentum in the past week. Trader consensus prices reflect this sustained polling gap for the outright first-place outcome.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$29,066End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding lead in recent polls for the top Senate spot in Brazil’s Federal District, where voters select two candidates on October 4. Datafolha (September 11) and Igape (September 13) show her at 34% and 27.9% respectively on first-choice votes, well ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT), Erika Kokay (PT), and Bia Kicis (PL). Her margin has widened modestly since August amid stable name recognition tied to the Bolsonaro family and PL support. Lower-polling candidates remain fragmented, with no late surge or major campaign event shifting first-preference momentum in the past week. Trader consensus prices reflect this sustained polling gap for the outright first-place outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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