Recent polling aggregates place Renan Santos, the Mission Party candidate and former MBL activist, consistently between 2% and 5% in first-round scenarios ahead of the October 4 vote, with most September surveys showing him near 3%. The leading 2-4% outcome reflects this pattern amid a race dominated by Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, where Santos remains a niche digital-focused outsider without major party infrastructure or free airtime. His support has stabilized after earlier fluctuations, drawing primarily from younger voters while facing structural limits in a polarized electorate. Traders assign lower weight to 4-6% or higher bands given the absence of recent upward momentum in national surveys and the short campaign window remaining.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2-4% 41%
4-6% 22%
<2% 19%
6-8% 14.5%
$63,491 Vol.
$63,491 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
<2%
19%
2-4%
41%
4-6%
22%
6-8%
9%
8%+
11%
2-4% 41%
4-6% 22%
<2% 19%
6-8% 14.5%
$63,491 Vol.
$63,491 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
<2%
$813 Vol.
19%
2-4%
$2,053 Vol.
41%
4-6%
$2,848 Vol.
22%
6-8%
$602 Vol.
9%
8%+
$57,175 Vol.
11%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates place Renan Santos, the Mission Party candidate and former MBL activist, consistently between 2% and 5% in first-round scenarios ahead of the October 4 vote, with most September surveys showing him near 3%. The leading 2-4% outcome reflects this pattern amid a race dominated by Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, where Santos remains a niche digital-focused outsider without major party infrastructure or free airtime. His support has stabilized after earlier fluctuations, drawing primarily from younger voters while facing structural limits in a polarized electorate. Traders assign lower weight to 4-6% or higher bands given the absence of recent upward momentum in national surveys and the short campaign window remaining.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
Volume
$63,491End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates place Renan Santos, the Mission Party candidate and former MBL activist, consistently between 2% and 5% in first-round scenarios ahead of the October 4 vote, with most September surveys showing him near 3%. The leading 2-4% outcome reflects this pattern amid a race dominated by Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, where Santos remains a niche digital-focused outsider without major party infrastructure or free airtime. His support has stabilized after earlier fluctuations, drawing primarily from younger voters while facing structural limits in a polarized electorate. Traders assign lower weight to 4-6% or higher bands given the absence of recent upward momentum in national surveys and the short campaign window remaining.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$63,491End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates place Renan Santos, the Mission Party candidate and former MBL activist, consistently between 2% and 5% in first-round scenarios ahead of the October 4 vote, with most September surveys showing him near 3%. The leading 2-4% outcome reflects this pattern amid a race dominated by Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, where Santos remains a niche digital-focused outsider without major party infrastructure or free airtime. His support has stabilized after earlier fluctuations, drawing primarily from younger voters while facing structural limits in a polarized electorate. Traders assign lower weight to 4-6% or higher bands given the absence of recent upward momentum in national surveys and the short campaign window remaining.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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