Marília Arraes (PDT) leads the market for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate race at 68% implied probability, reflecting her consistent position atop recent polling. In the latest Quaest survey (conducted September 4–7), she registered 17% of combined first- and second-choice votes, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 14% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 11%, with Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 7%; the top three remain within the 3-point margin of error. Arraes has held the numerical lead across multiple institutes since at least June, supported by left-aligned coalitions and higher visibility as a former federal deputy. With roughly one month until the October election and 27% of voters still undecided, late shifts in voter preferences tied to the concurrent gubernatorial contest could still influence final ordering among the competitive field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarília Arraes 68%
Humberto Costa 15.2%
Mendonça Filho 6.9%
Eduardo da Fonte 2.6%
$30,271 Vol.
$30,271 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
68%
Humberto Costa
15%
Mendonça Filho
7%
Eduardo da Fonte
3%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Marília Arraes 68%
Humberto Costa 15.2%
Mendonça Filho 6.9%
Eduardo da Fonte 2.6%
$30,271 Vol.
$30,271 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
$14,968 Vol.
68%
Humberto Costa
$8,517 Vol.
15%
Mendonça Filho
$1,322 Vol.
7%
Eduardo da Fonte
$857 Vol.
3%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$570 Vol.
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
$552 Vol.
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
$620 Vol.
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$523 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$600 Vol.
<1%
Gorett Bitu
$609 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$610 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$523 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) leads the market for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate race at 68% implied probability, reflecting her consistent position atop recent polling. In the latest Quaest survey (conducted September 4–7), she registered 17% of combined first- and second-choice votes, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 14% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 11%, with Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 7%; the top three remain within the 3-point margin of error. Arraes has held the numerical lead across multiple institutes since at least June, supported by left-aligned coalitions and higher visibility as a former federal deputy. With roughly one month until the October election and 27% of voters still undecided, late shifts in voter preferences tied to the concurrent gubernatorial contest could still influence final ordering among the competitive field.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$30,271End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) leads the market for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate race at 68% implied probability, reflecting her consistent position atop recent polling. In the latest Quaest survey (conducted September 4–7), she registered 17% of combined first- and second-choice votes, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 14% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 11%, with Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 7%; the top three remain within the 3-point margin of error. Arraes has held the numerical lead across multiple institutes since at least June, supported by left-aligned coalitions and higher visibility as a former federal deputy. With roughly one month until the October election and 27% of voters still undecided, late shifts in voter preferences tied to the concurrent gubernatorial contest could still influence final ordering among the competitive field.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$30,271End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Marília Arraes (PDT) leads the market for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate race at 68% implied probability, reflecting her consistent position atop recent polling. In the latest Quaest survey (conducted September 4–7), she registered 17% of combined first- and second-choice votes, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 14% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 11%, with Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 7%; the top three remain within the 3-point margin of error. Arraes has held the numerical lead across multiple institutes since at least June, supported by left-aligned coalitions and higher visibility as a former federal deputy. With roughly one month until the October election and 27% of voters still undecided, late shifts in voter preferences tied to the concurrent gubernatorial contest could still influence final ordering among the competitive field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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