Cid Gomes leads the Ceará Senate race at 77% implied probability, reflecting consistent polling leads of 24-27% in consolidated first- and second-choice votes across recent surveys from Real Time Big Data, Datafolha, and others. As the PSB incumbent senator and former governor, he benefits from high name recognition, alignment with the state governing coalition supporting Elmano de Freitas, and official party confirmation of his re-election bid in early August. Capitão Wagner trails at 13% amid 20-22% poll support, while Luizianne Lins sits at 6.2% with 17-20% backing; both trail in head-to-head positioning for the top spot. Other candidates register below 1%, consistent with single-digit or negligible shares in September data. The October 4 election remains weeks away, leaving room for late shifts in voter turnout or alliances.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCid Gomes 77%
Capitão Wagner 13%
Luizianne 6.2%
Alcides Fernandes <1%
$23,167 Vol.
$23,167 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Cid Gomes
77%
Capitão Wagner
13%
Luizianne
6%
Alcides Fernandes
1%
Lino Alves
<1%
Guilherme Theophilo
<1%
Catarina Matos
<1%
Reginaldo
<1%
Cid Gomes 77%
Capitão Wagner 13%
Luizianne 6.2%
Alcides Fernandes <1%
$23,167 Vol.
$23,167 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Cid Gomes
$15,438 Vol.
77%
Capitão Wagner
$2,701 Vol.
13%
Luizianne
$1,258 Vol.
6%
Alcides Fernandes
$857 Vol.
1%
Lino Alves
$840 Vol.
<1%
Guilherme Theophilo
$654 Vol.
<1%
Catarina Matos
$650 Vol.
<1%
Reginaldo
$769 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Cid Gomes leads the Ceará Senate race at 77% implied probability, reflecting consistent polling leads of 24-27% in consolidated first- and second-choice votes across recent surveys from Real Time Big Data, Datafolha, and others. As the PSB incumbent senator and former governor, he benefits from high name recognition, alignment with the state governing coalition supporting Elmano de Freitas, and official party confirmation of his re-election bid in early August. Capitão Wagner trails at 13% amid 20-22% poll support, while Luizianne Lins sits at 6.2% with 17-20% backing; both trail in head-to-head positioning for the top spot. Other candidates register below 1%, consistent with single-digit or negligible shares in September data. The October 4 election remains weeks away, leaving room for late shifts in voter turnout or alliances.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET
Volume
$23,167End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Cid Gomes leads the Ceará Senate race at 77% implied probability, reflecting consistent polling leads of 24-27% in consolidated first- and second-choice votes across recent surveys from Real Time Big Data, Datafolha, and others. As the PSB incumbent senator and former governor, he benefits from high name recognition, alignment with the state governing coalition supporting Elmano de Freitas, and official party confirmation of his re-election bid in early August. Capitão Wagner trails at 13% amid 20-22% poll support, while Luizianne Lins sits at 6.2% with 17-20% backing; both trail in head-to-head positioning for the top spot. Other candidates register below 1%, consistent with single-digit or negligible shares in September data. The October 4 election remains weeks away, leaving room for late shifts in voter turnout or alliances.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$23,167End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Cid Gomes leads the Ceará Senate race at 77% implied probability, reflecting consistent polling leads of 24-27% in consolidated first- and second-choice votes across recent surveys from Real Time Big Data, Datafolha, and others. As the PSB incumbent senator and former governor, he benefits from high name recognition, alignment with the state governing coalition supporting Elmano de Freitas, and official party confirmation of his re-election bid in early August. Capitão Wagner trails at 13% amid 20-22% poll support, while Luizianne Lins sits at 6.2% with 17-20% backing; both trail in head-to-head positioning for the top spot. Other candidates register below 1%, consistent with single-digit or negligible shares in September data. The October 4 election remains weeks away, leaving room for late shifts in voter turnout or alliances.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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