Carlos Jordy (PL) holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for second place in the Rio de Janeiro Senate election, driven by official preliminary results from the October 4, 2026, vote. With over 99% of ballots counted, Jordy secured approximately 24.6% of the vote, placing him behind party colleague Carlos Portinho (26.8%) and ahead of Benedita da Silva (PT) at around 20.2%. Late-campaign polling from Quaest, Datafolha, and Real Time Big Data showed Jordy and Portinho gaining momentum in combined first- and second-choice preferences, reflecting strong PL voter consolidation in the state's two-seat contest. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include final certification adjustments, legal challenges to specific ballot batches, or discrepancies in the remaining vote tallies, though such developments remain unlikely given the margin and near-complete count.
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