Recent polling from early September shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leading overall Senate intentions in the Federal District at around 26%, positioning her as the likely first-place finisher ahead of the October 4 election. This leaves second place in a tight contest among incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 17%, Bia Kicis (PL) at 11-17%, and Erika Kokay (PT) at 13-15%, with results often within the margin of error and technically tied. The PL's dual-candidacy slate and cross-party alliances tied to broader national races contribute to vote-splitting dynamics on the right, while left-leaning support clusters around Leila and Erika. With roughly two-thirds of voters undecided or open to shifts in the final weeks, trader consensus assigns Leila the highest probability for second place, though any late polling movement or turnout differences among key blocs could alter the ranking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLeila do Vôlei 52%
Bia Kicis 25.9%
Erika Kokay 11%
Michelle Bolsonaro 1.0%
$40,092 Vol.
$40,092 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Leila do Vôlei
56%
Bia Kicis
28%
Erika Kokay
11%
Michelle Bolsonaro
8%
David Horn
<1%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Marley
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Leila do Vôlei 52%
Bia Kicis 25.9%
Erika Kokay 11%
Michelle Bolsonaro 1.0%
$40,092 Vol.
$40,092 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Leila do Vôlei
$14,211 Vol.
56%
Bia Kicis
$9,633 Vol.
28%
Erika Kokay
$6,105 Vol.
11%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$4,262 Vol.
8%
David Horn
$2,042 Vol.
<1%
Avenir Rosa
$437 Vol.
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$381 Vol.
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$878 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$546 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$392 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$407 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$381 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$417 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from early September shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leading overall Senate intentions in the Federal District at around 26%, positioning her as the likely first-place finisher ahead of the October 4 election. This leaves second place in a tight contest among incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 17%, Bia Kicis (PL) at 11-17%, and Erika Kokay (PT) at 13-15%, with results often within the margin of error and technically tied. The PL's dual-candidacy slate and cross-party alliances tied to broader national races contribute to vote-splitting dynamics on the right, while left-leaning support clusters around Leila and Erika. With roughly two-thirds of voters undecided or open to shifts in the final weeks, trader consensus assigns Leila the highest probability for second place, though any late polling movement or turnout differences among key blocs could alter the ranking.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$40,092End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from early September shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leading overall Senate intentions in the Federal District at around 26%, positioning her as the likely first-place finisher ahead of the October 4 election. This leaves second place in a tight contest among incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 17%, Bia Kicis (PL) at 11-17%, and Erika Kokay (PT) at 13-15%, with results often within the margin of error and technically tied. The PL's dual-candidacy slate and cross-party alliances tied to broader national races contribute to vote-splitting dynamics on the right, while left-leaning support clusters around Leila and Erika. With roughly two-thirds of voters undecided or open to shifts in the final weeks, trader consensus assigns Leila the highest probability for second place, though any late polling movement or turnout differences among key blocs could alter the ranking.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$40,092End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from early September shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leading overall Senate intentions in the Federal District at around 26%, positioning her as the likely first-place finisher ahead of the October 4 election. This leaves second place in a tight contest among incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 17%, Bia Kicis (PL) at 11-17%, and Erika Kokay (PT) at 13-15%, with results often within the margin of error and technically tied. The PL's dual-candidacy slate and cross-party alliances tied to broader national races contribute to vote-splitting dynamics on the right, while left-leaning support clusters around Leila and Erika. With roughly two-thirds of voters undecided or open to shifts in the final weeks, trader consensus assigns Leila the highest probability for second place, though any late polling movement or turnout differences among key blocs could alter the ranking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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