Cid Gomes (PSB) holds a dominant position in trader assessments for first place in Ceará’s October 4 Senate race, driven by consistent polling leads of 23–27% in consolidated first- and second-vote scenarios across recent surveys from Real Time Big Data, Datafolha, and Quaest. As the incumbent senator and former governor, he benefits from high name recognition and the PSB’s alliance with the state administration supporting Governor Elmano de Freitas’s reelection bid. Official party conventions in late July and early August formalized his candidacy alongside main rivals Capitão Wagner (União Brasil), Luizianne Lins (Rede), and Alcides Fernandes (PL), none of whom have closed the gap in head-to-head or multi-candidate testing. The market’s wide margin over lower-probability names reflects these structural and survey-based factors ahead of the first-round vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCid Gomes 77%
Capitão Wagner 14%
Luizianne 6.2%
Alcides Fernandes <1%
$23,167 Vol.
$23,167 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Cid Gomes
77%
Capitão Wagner
14%
Luizianne
6%
Alcides Fernandes
1%
Lino Alves
<1%
Guilherme Theophilo
<1%
Catarina Matos
<1%
Reginaldo
<1%
Cid Gomes 77%
Capitão Wagner 14%
Luizianne 6.2%
Alcides Fernandes <1%
$23,167 Vol.
$23,167 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Cid Gomes
$15,438 Vol.
77%
Capitão Wagner
$2,701 Vol.
14%
Luizianne
$1,258 Vol.
6%
Alcides Fernandes
$857 Vol.
1%
Lino Alves
$840 Vol.
<1%
Guilherme Theophilo
$654 Vol.
<1%
Catarina Matos
$650 Vol.
<1%
Reginaldo
$769 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Cid Gomes (PSB) holds a dominant position in trader assessments for first place in Ceará’s October 4 Senate race, driven by consistent polling leads of 23–27% in consolidated first- and second-vote scenarios across recent surveys from Real Time Big Data, Datafolha, and Quaest. As the incumbent senator and former governor, he benefits from high name recognition and the PSB’s alliance with the state administration supporting Governor Elmano de Freitas’s reelection bid. Official party conventions in late July and early August formalized his candidacy alongside main rivals Capitão Wagner (União Brasil), Luizianne Lins (Rede), and Alcides Fernandes (PL), none of whom have closed the gap in head-to-head or multi-candidate testing. The market’s wide margin over lower-probability names reflects these structural and survey-based factors ahead of the first-round vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET
Volume
$23,167End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Cid Gomes (PSB) holds a dominant position in trader assessments for first place in Ceará’s October 4 Senate race, driven by consistent polling leads of 23–27% in consolidated first- and second-vote scenarios across recent surveys from Real Time Big Data, Datafolha, and Quaest. As the incumbent senator and former governor, he benefits from high name recognition and the PSB’s alliance with the state administration supporting Governor Elmano de Freitas’s reelection bid. Official party conventions in late July and early August formalized his candidacy alongside main rivals Capitão Wagner (União Brasil), Luizianne Lins (Rede), and Alcides Fernandes (PL), none of whom have closed the gap in head-to-head or multi-candidate testing. The market’s wide margin over lower-probability names reflects these structural and survey-based factors ahead of the first-round vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$23,167End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Cid Gomes (PSB) holds a dominant position in trader assessments for first place in Ceará’s October 4 Senate race, driven by consistent polling leads of 23–27% in consolidated first- and second-vote scenarios across recent surveys from Real Time Big Data, Datafolha, and Quaest. As the incumbent senator and former governor, he benefits from high name recognition and the PSB’s alliance with the state administration supporting Governor Elmano de Freitas’s reelection bid. Official party conventions in late July and early August formalized his candidacy alongside main rivals Capitão Wagner (União Brasil), Luizianne Lins (Rede), and Alcides Fernandes (PL), none of whom have closed the gap in head-to-head or multi-candidate testing. The market’s wide margin over lower-probability names reflects these structural and survey-based factors ahead of the first-round vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions