Lula maintains a commanding lead in Ceará polling for the first round of the 2026 presidential election, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel showing him at 52-61% support against Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 20s and all other listed candidates in single digits. This positioning aligns with the state's Northeast profile as a consistent PT base, reinforced by Lula's 2022 first-round performance there and sustained government approval ratings near 64% in local samples. Traders price the outcome at these levels because no late-campaign development has narrowed the gap, though shifts could occur from changes in national momentum, turnout patterns among lower-income voters, or unexpected consolidation behind a single challenger before October voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 97.6%
Flavio Bolsonaro <1%
Samara <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$14,273 Vol.
$14,273 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
98%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Samara
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 97.6%
Flavio Bolsonaro <1%
Samara <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$14,273 Vol.
$14,273 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$7,960 Vol.
98%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$817 Vol.
1%
Samara
$517 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$457 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$702 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$471 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$471 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$481 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$491 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$501 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$441 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$446 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$521 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Ceará polling for the first round of the 2026 presidential election, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel showing him at 52-61% support against Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 20s and all other listed candidates in single digits. This positioning aligns with the state's Northeast profile as a consistent PT base, reinforced by Lula's 2022 first-round performance there and sustained government approval ratings near 64% in local samples. Traders price the outcome at these levels because no late-campaign development has narrowed the gap, though shifts could occur from changes in national momentum, turnout patterns among lower-income voters, or unexpected consolidation behind a single challenger before October voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Volume
$14,273End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Ceará polling for the first round of the 2026 presidential election, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel showing him at 52-61% support against Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 20s and all other listed candidates in single digits. This positioning aligns with the state's Northeast profile as a consistent PT base, reinforced by Lula's 2022 first-round performance there and sustained government approval ratings near 64% in local samples. Traders price the outcome at these levels because no late-campaign development has narrowed the gap, though shifts could occur from changes in national momentum, turnout patterns among lower-income voters, or unexpected consolidation behind a single challenger before October voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$14,273End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Ceará polling for the first round of the 2026 presidential election, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel showing him at 52-61% support against Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 20s and all other listed candidates in single digits. This positioning aligns with the state's Northeast profile as a consistent PT base, reinforced by Lula's 2022 first-round performance there and sustained government approval ratings near 64% in local samples. Traders price the outcome at these levels because no late-campaign development has narrowed the gap, though shifts could occur from changes in national momentum, turnout patterns among lower-income voters, or unexpected consolidation behind a single challenger before October voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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