Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80% implied probability for first place in the Bahia Senate race, consistent with his isolated lead in the latest Real Time Big Data survey. In that poll of 1,600 voters conducted September 4–8, he captured 26% of consolidated first-and-second preferences and 39% of first-choice votes, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 19%. João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) trail at 17% and 15%, respectively, within the margin of error for the second seat. Costa’s advantage stems from his high name recognition as former governor and recent Casa Civil minister, combined with PT’s organizational strength in the state ahead of the October 4 election. Traders appear to price in limited movement from the remaining field before voting begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRui Costa 80%
Jaques Wagner 14.1%
Angelo Coronel 4.0%
João Roma 3.6%
$28,481 Vol.
$28,481 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
80%
Jaques Wagner
14%
Angelo Coronel
4%
João Roma
4%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Rui Costa 80%
Jaques Wagner 14.1%
Angelo Coronel 4.0%
João Roma 3.6%
$28,481 Vol.
$28,481 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
$13,553 Vol.
80%
Jaques Wagner
$5,807 Vol.
14%
Angelo Coronel
$1,835 Vol.
4%
João Roma
$2,802 Vol.
4%
Professora Delliana
$667 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sodré
$800 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$691 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$741 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$810 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$775 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80% implied probability for first place in the Bahia Senate race, consistent with his isolated lead in the latest Real Time Big Data survey. In that poll of 1,600 voters conducted September 4–8, he captured 26% of consolidated first-and-second preferences and 39% of first-choice votes, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 19%. João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) trail at 17% and 15%, respectively, within the margin of error for the second seat. Costa’s advantage stems from his high name recognition as former governor and recent Casa Civil minister, combined with PT’s organizational strength in the state ahead of the October 4 election. Traders appear to price in limited movement from the remaining field before voting begins.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$28,481End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80% implied probability for first place in the Bahia Senate race, consistent with his isolated lead in the latest Real Time Big Data survey. In that poll of 1,600 voters conducted September 4–8, he captured 26% of consolidated first-and-second preferences and 39% of first-choice votes, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 19%. João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) trail at 17% and 15%, respectively, within the margin of error for the second seat. Costa’s advantage stems from his high name recognition as former governor and recent Casa Civil minister, combined with PT’s organizational strength in the state ahead of the October 4 election. Traders appear to price in limited movement from the remaining field before voting begins.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$28,481End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80% implied probability for first place in the Bahia Senate race, consistent with his isolated lead in the latest Real Time Big Data survey. In that poll of 1,600 voters conducted September 4–8, he captured 26% of consolidated first-and-second preferences and 39% of first-choice votes, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 19%. João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) trail at 17% and 15%, respectively, within the margin of error for the second seat. Costa’s advantage stems from his high name recognition as former governor and recent Casa Civil minister, combined with PT’s organizational strength in the state ahead of the October 4 election. Traders appear to price in limited movement from the remaining field before voting begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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