Strong consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, CBO, IMF, and major banks project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.2% for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual basis, driven by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in AI-related capital expenditures, and productivity gains that have offset headwinds from tariffs, elevated energy prices, and slower labor-force growth. Second-quarter 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate with upward revisions to underlying demand, keeping the expansion near potential and recession probabilities low per economist surveys. Market-implied odds near 98% on no negative growth reflect this data-driven outlook and the limited scope for a full-year contraction. Tail risks remain, including a severe oil-price shock from Middle East escalation or abrupt policy shifts that could tip activity into outright decline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
2% โอกาส
$33,280 ปริมาณ
$33,280 ปริมาณ
Jan 28, 2027
2% โอกาส
$33,280 ปริมาณ
$33,280 ปริมาณ
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, CBO, IMF, and major banks project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.2% for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual basis, driven by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in AI-related capital expenditures, and productivity gains that have offset headwinds from tariffs, elevated energy prices, and slower labor-force growth. Second-quarter 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate with upward revisions to underlying demand, keeping the expansion near potential and recession probabilities low per economist surveys. Market-implied odds near 98% on no negative growth reflect this data-driven outlook and the limited scope for a full-year contraction. Tail risks remain, including a severe oil-price shock from Middle East escalation or abrupt policy shifts that could tip activity into outright decline.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$33,280วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, CBO, IMF, and major banks project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.2% for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual basis, driven by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in AI-related capital expenditures, and productivity gains that have offset headwinds from tariffs, elevated energy prices, and slower labor-force growth. Second-quarter 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate with upward revisions to underlying demand, keeping the expansion near potential and recession probabilities low per economist surveys. Market-implied odds near 98% on no negative growth reflect this data-driven outlook and the limited scope for a full-year contraction. Tail risks remain, including a severe oil-price shock from Middle East escalation or abrupt policy shifts that could tip activity into outright decline.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$33,280วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Strong consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, CBO, IMF, and major banks project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.2% for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual basis, driven by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in AI-related capital expenditures, and productivity gains that have offset headwinds from tariffs, elevated energy prices, and slower labor-force growth. Second-quarter 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate with upward revisions to underlying demand, keeping the expansion near potential and recession probabilities low per economist surveys. Market-implied odds near 98% on no negative growth reflect this data-driven outlook and the limited scope for a full-year contraction. Tail risks remain, including a severe oil-price shock from Middle East escalation or abrupt policy shifts that could tip activity into outright decline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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