Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, with August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, alongside July CPI showing a 3.4% year-over-year increase and 2.5% core rate, has shifted trader focus toward potential policy tightening. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50–3.75%, and market pricing now reflects a higher implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting amid resilient growth and supply-side inflation risks. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish signals, including references to unfinished inflation work, have reinforced expectations that the committee may adjust its stance if August CPI data due September 11 confirms persistent pressures. The upcoming dot plot and September decision represent key near-term catalysts that could influence rate-path probabilities through year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$2,929,032 ปริมาณ
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
54%
October Meeting
65%
$2,929,032 ปริมาณ
September Meeting
$1,337,363 ปริมาณ
54%
October Meeting
$631,668 ปริมาณ
65%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, with August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, alongside July CPI showing a 3.4% year-over-year increase and 2.5% core rate, has shifted trader focus toward potential policy tightening. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50–3.75%, and market pricing now reflects a higher implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting amid resilient growth and supply-side inflation risks. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish signals, including references to unfinished inflation work, have reinforced expectations that the committee may adjust its stance if August CPI data due September 11 confirms persistent pressures. The upcoming dot plot and September decision represent key near-term catalysts that could influence rate-path probabilities through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,929,032วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, with August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, alongside July CPI showing a 3.4% year-over-year increase and 2.5% core rate, has shifted trader focus toward potential policy tightening. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50–3.75%, and market pricing now reflects a higher implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting amid resilient growth and supply-side inflation risks. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish signals, including references to unfinished inflation work, have reinforced expectations that the committee may adjust its stance if August CPI data due September 11 confirms persistent pressures. The upcoming dot plot and September decision represent key near-term catalysts that could influence rate-path probabilities through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,929,032วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, with August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, alongside July CPI showing a 3.4% year-over-year increase and 2.5% core rate, has shifted trader focus toward potential policy tightening. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50–3.75%, and market pricing now reflects a higher implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting amid resilient growth and supply-side inflation risks. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish signals, including references to unfinished inflation work, have reinforced expectations that the committee may adjust its stance if August CPI data due September 11 confirms persistent pressures. The upcoming dot plot and September decision represent key near-term catalysts that could influence rate-path probabilities through year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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