Recent economic data showing moderating inflation pressures alongside a stable labor market have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee to maintain the federal funds rate target range at its October 27–28 meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting a 62.5% probability of no change. The September 15–16 FOMC projections and dot plot, released amid elevated but tempering price pressures linked to prior geopolitical factors, signaled a divided committee open to potential tightening if inflation reaccelerates, supporting the 36.5% odds for a 25 basis point hike. Proximity to the November midterm elections has further reinforced caution, as policymakers historically require especially compelling data to adjust policy near voting, limiting probabilities for cuts below 3%. Upcoming releases on inflation, employment, and retail sales will serve as key inputs into the rate path before the next decision.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 63%
25 bps increase 37%
25 bps decrease 2.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
$2,588,362 ปริมาณ
$2,588,362 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
2%
No change
63%
25 bps increase
37%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 63%
25 bps increase 37%
25 bps decrease 2.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
$2,588,362 ปริมาณ
$2,588,362 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$397,335 ปริมาณ
1%
25 bps decrease
$750,102 ปริมาณ
2%
No change
$540,180 ปริมาณ
63%
25 bps increase
$552,671 ปริมาณ
37%
50+ bps increase
$348,074 ปริมาณ
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent economic data showing moderating inflation pressures alongside a stable labor market have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee to maintain the federal funds rate target range at its October 27–28 meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting a 62.5% probability of no change. The September 15–16 FOMC projections and dot plot, released amid elevated but tempering price pressures linked to prior geopolitical factors, signaled a divided committee open to potential tightening if inflation reaccelerates, supporting the 36.5% odds for a 25 basis point hike. Proximity to the November midterm elections has further reinforced caution, as policymakers historically require especially compelling data to adjust policy near voting, limiting probabilities for cuts below 3%. Upcoming releases on inflation, employment, and retail sales will serve as key inputs into the rate path before the next decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,588,362วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent economic data showing moderating inflation pressures alongside a stable labor market have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee to maintain the federal funds rate target range at its October 27–28 meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting a 62.5% probability of no change. The September 15–16 FOMC projections and dot plot, released amid elevated but tempering price pressures linked to prior geopolitical factors, signaled a divided committee open to potential tightening if inflation reaccelerates, supporting the 36.5% odds for a 25 basis point hike. Proximity to the November midterm elections has further reinforced caution, as policymakers historically require especially compelling data to adjust policy near voting, limiting probabilities for cuts below 3%. Upcoming releases on inflation, employment, and retail sales will serve as key inputs into the rate path before the next decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,588,362วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent economic data showing moderating inflation pressures alongside a stable labor market have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee to maintain the federal funds rate target range at its October 27–28 meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting a 62.5% probability of no change. The September 15–16 FOMC projections and dot plot, released amid elevated but tempering price pressures linked to prior geopolitical factors, signaled a divided committee open to potential tightening if inflation reaccelerates, supporting the 36.5% odds for a 25 basis point hike. Proximity to the November midterm elections has further reinforced caution, as policymakers historically require especially compelling data to adjust policy near voting, limiting probabilities for cuts below 3%. Upcoming releases on inflation, employment, and retail sales will serve as key inputs into the rate path before the next decision.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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