The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.57-4.62%, has climbed sharply from year-ago levels around 3.6% amid persistent inflation and shifting Federal Reserve expectations. Elevated year-over-year PCE and CPI readings near 3.4-3.7%—well above the 2% target and influenced by energy supply shocks and Middle East disruptions—have prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% while increasing the share of officials projecting at least one hike by year-end. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and modest payroll gains, have supported the higher-for-longer policy stance, pushing Treasury yields higher across the curve and reducing near-term prospects for significant yield compression. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases will provide key signals on whether rate path expectations shift enough to allow the 5-year yield to test lower levels before 2027.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
ใหม่
Dec 30, 2026
Below 4.50%
84%
Below 4.45%
75%
Below 4.40%
69%
Below 4.35%
61%
Below 4.30%
51%
Below 4.25%
43%
Below 4.20%
37%
Below 4.10%
24%
Below 4.00%
14%
$9,048 ปริมาณ
Below 4.50%
$56 ปริมาณ
84%
Below 4.45%
$0 ปริมาณ
75%
Below 4.40%
$504 ปริมาณ
69%
Below 4.35%
$853 ปริมาณ
61%
Below 4.30%
$0 ปริมาณ
51%
Below 4.25%
$0 ปริมาณ
43%
Below 4.20%
$522 ปริมาณ
37%
Below 4.10%
$5,873 ปริมาณ
24%
Below 4.00%
$1,240 ปริมาณ
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.57-4.62%, has climbed sharply from year-ago levels around 3.6% amid persistent inflation and shifting Federal Reserve expectations. Elevated year-over-year PCE and CPI readings near 3.4-3.7%—well above the 2% target and influenced by energy supply shocks and Middle East disruptions—have prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% while increasing the share of officials projecting at least one hike by year-end. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and modest payroll gains, have supported the higher-for-longer policy stance, pushing Treasury yields higher across the curve and reducing near-term prospects for significant yield compression. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases will provide key signals on whether rate path expectations shift enough to allow the 5-year yield to test lower levels before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,048วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.57-4.62%, has climbed sharply from year-ago levels around 3.6% amid persistent inflation and shifting Federal Reserve expectations. Elevated year-over-year PCE and CPI readings near 3.4-3.7%—well above the 2% target and influenced by energy supply shocks and Middle East disruptions—have prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% while increasing the share of officials projecting at least one hike by year-end. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and modest payroll gains, have supported the higher-for-longer policy stance, pushing Treasury yields higher across the curve and reducing near-term prospects for significant yield compression. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases will provide key signals on whether rate path expectations shift enough to allow the 5-year yield to test lower levels before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,048วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.57-4.62%, has climbed sharply from year-ago levels around 3.6% amid persistent inflation and shifting Federal Reserve expectations. Elevated year-over-year PCE and CPI readings near 3.4-3.7%—well above the 2% target and influenced by energy supply shocks and Middle East disruptions—have prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% while increasing the share of officials projecting at least one hike by year-end. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1-4.3% and modest payroll gains, have supported the higher-for-longer policy stance, pushing Treasury yields higher across the curve and reducing near-term prospects for significant yield compression. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases will provide key signals on whether rate path expectations shift enough to allow the 5-year yield to test lower levels before 2027.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย