Recent affirmations by major credit rating agencies underpin trader expectations against another U.S. sovereign downgrade before 2027. Fitch affirmed its AA+ rating with a stable outlook in August 2026, citing the economy’s scale, reserve currency status, and institutional strengths while projecting rising debt-to-GDP and deficits near 7% of GDP. S&P similarly affirmed its AA+ rating with a stable outlook in June 2026, noting resilient growth, tariff-supported revenues, and high but stable fiscal deficits. Moody’s completed its 2025 downgrade to Aa1, leaving all three agencies one notch below top tier with stable outlooks that signal limited near-term downside risk. The debt ceiling, projected to bind around mid-2027, remains the next likely focal point for negotiations, but Congress has historically resolved such measures in time to avoid default. These developments support the current 85.5% implied probability that no further downgrade occurs before year-end 2026.