Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, alongside a resilient labor market with 162,000 payroll gains, have reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve tightening by year-end. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, FOMC communications have turned notably hawkish, with officials signaling willingness to raise the federal funds rate from its current 3.50%-3.75% target range if price pressures persist above the 2% goal. These factors position a 25 basis point hike as the leading December outcome at 55.5% implied probability, while the 39.5% odds on no change reflect uncertainty ahead of the September 15-16 meeting and subsequent data releases. Market-implied odds aggregate real capital at risk, pricing in the balance of inflation trajectory versus growth momentum.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed Decision in December?
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase 56%
No change 40%
50+ bps increase 4.5%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
$687,940 ปริมาณ
$687,940 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
No change 40%
50+ bps increase 4.5%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
$687,940 ปริมาณ
$687,940 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$102,808 ปริมาณ
1%
25 bps decrease
$156,073 ปริมาณ
4%
No change
$136,748 ปริมาณ
40%
25 bps increase
$187,509 ปริมาณ
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,802 ปริมาณ
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, alongside a resilient labor market with 162,000 payroll gains, have reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve tightening by year-end. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, FOMC communications have turned notably hawkish, with officials signaling willingness to raise the federal funds rate from its current 3.50%-3.75% target range if price pressures persist above the 2% goal. These factors position a 25 basis point hike as the leading December outcome at 55.5% implied probability, while the 39.5% odds on no change reflect uncertainty ahead of the September 15-16 meeting and subsequent data releases. Market-implied odds aggregate real capital at risk, pricing in the balance of inflation trajectory versus growth momentum.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$687,940วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, alongside a resilient labor market with 162,000 payroll gains, have reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve tightening by year-end. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, FOMC communications have turned notably hawkish, with officials signaling willingness to raise the federal funds rate from its current 3.50%-3.75% target range if price pressures persist above the 2% goal. These factors position a 25 basis point hike as the leading December outcome at 55.5% implied probability, while the 39.5% odds on no change reflect uncertainty ahead of the September 15-16 meeting and subsequent data releases. Market-implied odds aggregate real capital at risk, pricing in the balance of inflation trajectory versus growth momentum.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$687,940วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, alongside a resilient labor market with 162,000 payroll gains, have reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve tightening by year-end. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, FOMC communications have turned notably hawkish, with officials signaling willingness to raise the federal funds rate from its current 3.50%-3.75% target range if price pressures persist above the 2% goal. These factors position a 25 basis point hike as the leading December outcome at 55.5% implied probability, while the 39.5% odds on no change reflect uncertainty ahead of the September 15-16 meeting and subsequent data releases. Market-implied odds aggregate real capital at risk, pricing in the balance of inflation trajectory versus growth momentum.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย