Recent geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict that began in February 2026, have driven sharp fuel price increases and pushed South African headline CPI to 5.0% year-over-year in June—the highest in two years—after 4.5% in May. This supply shock has prompted the South African Reserve Bank to revise its 2026 average inflation forecast to 4.4%, with the policy rate held at 7% following the May hike. A September 9 central bank study highlights the 3% target’s resilience, citing better-anchored expectations and an estimated 78% probability of staying within the 2-4% band absent major further disruptions. These dynamics create closely matched Polymarket odds around the 4.4-4.7% and >5.0% ranges, as traders weigh persistent oil volatility and potential second-round effects against the central bank’s credibility and upcoming September 23 Monetary Policy Committee decision.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoInflação Anual da África do Sul 2026
Inflação Anual da África do Sul 2026
4,4-4,7% 21.4%
>5,0% 19.6%
4,7-5,0% 14.2%
4,1-4,4% 7.3%
$43,668 Vol.
$43,668 Vol.
19 jan 2027
<2,6%
<1%
2,6-2,9%
1%
2,9-3,2%
5%
3,2-3,5%
6%
3,5-3,8%
4%
3,8-4,1%
6%
4,1-4,4%
7%
4,4-4,7%
21%
4,7-5,0%
14%
>5,0%
20%
4,4-4,7% 21.4%
>5,0% 19.6%
4,7-5,0% 14.2%
4,1-4,4% 7.3%
$43,668 Vol.
$43,668 Vol.
19 jan 2027
<2,6%
$1,305 Vol.
<1%
2,6-2,9%
$1,949 Vol.
1%
2,9-3,2%
$1,649 Vol.
5%
3,2-3,5%
$1,354 Vol.
6%
3,5-3,8%
$1,883 Vol.
4%
3,8-4,1%
$3,533 Vol.
6%
4,1-4,4%
$3,494 Vol.
7%
4,4-4,7%
$15,099 Vol.
21%
4,7-5,0%
$4,129 Vol.
14%
>5,0%
$9,273 Vol.
20%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Recent geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict that began in February 2026, have driven sharp fuel price increases and pushed South African headline CPI to 5.0% year-over-year in June—the highest in two years—after 4.5% in May. This supply shock has prompted the South African Reserve Bank to revise its 2026 average inflation forecast to 4.4%, with the policy rate held at 7% following the May hike. A September 9 central bank study highlights the 3% target’s resilience, citing better-anchored expectations and an estimated 78% probability of staying within the 2-4% band absent major further disruptions. These dynamics create closely matched Polymarket odds around the 4.4-4.7% and >5.0% ranges, as traders weigh persistent oil volatility and potential second-round effects against the central bank’s credibility and upcoming September 23 Monetary Policy Committee decision.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Mercado Aberto: Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$43,668Data de Término
20 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Recent geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict that began in February 2026, have driven sharp fuel price increases and pushed South African headline CPI to 5.0% year-over-year in June—the highest in two years—after 4.5% in May. This supply shock has prompted the South African Reserve Bank to revise its 2026 average inflation forecast to 4.4%, with the policy rate held at 7% following the May hike. A September 9 central bank study highlights the 3% target’s resilience, citing better-anchored expectations and an estimated 78% probability of staying within the 2-4% band absent major further disruptions. These dynamics create closely matched Polymarket odds around the 4.4-4.7% and >5.0% ranges, as traders weigh persistent oil volatility and potential second-round effects against the central bank’s credibility and upcoming September 23 Monetary Policy Committee decision.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Volume
$43,668Data de Término
20 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict that began in February 2026, have driven sharp fuel price increases and pushed South African headline CPI to 5.0% year-over-year in June—the highest in two years—after 4.5% in May. This supply shock has prompted the South African Reserve Bank to revise its 2026 average inflation forecast to 4.4%, with the policy rate held at 7% following the May hike. A September 9 central bank study highlights the 3% target’s resilience, citing better-anchored expectations and an estimated 78% probability of staying within the 2-4% band absent major further disruptions. These dynamics create closely matched Polymarket odds around the 4.4-4.7% and >5.0% ranges, as traders weigh persistent oil volatility and potential second-round effects against the central bank’s credibility and upcoming September 23 Monetary Policy Committee decision.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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