Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing unfinished inflation work, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting to 30.5%. Traders price the 3.50-3.75% federal funds range as the baseline outcome at 67.5%, reflecting resilient labor conditions and energy-driven price pressures that have shifted some forecasts toward tightening, though core CPI trends near 2.5% and the pending August inflation release on September 11 continue to anchor expectations for a hold following the September 15-16 decision.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoDecisão do Fed em outubro?
Decisão do Fed em outubro?
Sem mudança 68%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 31%
Redução de 25 pontos-base 3.6%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
$1,417,437 Vol.
$1,417,437 Vol.
28 out 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos base
<1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
4%
Sem mudança
68%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
31%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
1%
Sem mudança 68%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 31%
Redução de 25 pontos-base 3.6%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
$1,417,437 Vol.
$1,417,437 Vol.
28 out 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos base
$236,585 Vol.
<1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
$545,170 Vol.
4%
Sem mudança
$223,772 Vol.
68%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
$254,048 Vol.
31%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
$157,861 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing unfinished inflation work, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting to 30.5%. Traders price the 3.50-3.75% federal funds range as the baseline outcome at 67.5%, reflecting resilient labor conditions and energy-driven price pressures that have shifted some forecasts toward tightening, though core CPI trends near 2.5% and the pending August inflation release on September 11 continue to anchor expectations for a hold following the September 15-16 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,417,437Data de Término
28 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing unfinished inflation work, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting to 30.5%. Traders price the 3.50-3.75% federal funds range as the baseline outcome at 67.5%, reflecting resilient labor conditions and energy-driven price pressures that have shifted some forecasts toward tightening, though core CPI trends near 2.5% and the pending August inflation release on September 11 continue to anchor expectations for a hold following the September 15-16 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$1,417,437Data de Término
28 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing unfinished inflation work, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting to 30.5%. Traders price the 3.50-3.75% federal funds range as the baseline outcome at 67.5%, reflecting resilient labor conditions and energy-driven price pressures that have shifted some forecasts toward tightening, though core CPI trends near 2.5% and the pending August inflation release on September 11 continue to anchor expectations for a hold following the September 15-16 decision.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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