Recent strong U.S. labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 against softer expectations and unemployment holding at 4.1%, combined with persistent core PCE inflation near 3.3% year-over-year, have shifted trader sentiment toward at least one 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase by year-end. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, including references to ongoing inflation work at Jackson Hole, have reinforced this view amid resilient growth and supply-side pressures. Market-implied odds now price roughly 58% odds of a September move at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with analyst forecasts showing a doubling in the share expecting 2026 hikes. The current 73.5% probability for a hike in 2026 reflects this data-driven reassessment of the Fed's policy path versus prior hold expectations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
74% chance
$8,781,019 Vol.
$8,781,019 Vol.
8 dez 2026
Sim
74% chance
$8,781,019 Vol.
$8,781,019 Vol.
8 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent strong U.S. labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 against softer expectations and unemployment holding at 4.1%, combined with persistent core PCE inflation near 3.3% year-over-year, have shifted trader sentiment toward at least one 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase by year-end. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, including references to ongoing inflation work at Jackson Hole, have reinforced this view amid resilient growth and supply-side pressures. Market-implied odds now price roughly 58% odds of a September move at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with analyst forecasts showing a doubling in the share expecting 2026 hikes. The current 73.5% probability for a hike in 2026 reflects this data-driven reassessment of the Fed's policy path versus prior hold expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$8,781,019Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent strong U.S. labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 against softer expectations and unemployment holding at 4.1%, combined with persistent core PCE inflation near 3.3% year-over-year, have shifted trader sentiment toward at least one 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase by year-end. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, including references to ongoing inflation work at Jackson Hole, have reinforced this view amid resilient growth and supply-side pressures. Market-implied odds now price roughly 58% odds of a September move at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with analyst forecasts showing a doubling in the share expecting 2026 hikes. The current 73.5% probability for a hike in 2026 reflects this data-driven reassessment of the Fed's policy path versus prior hold expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,781,019Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent strong U.S. labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 against softer expectations and unemployment holding at 4.1%, combined with persistent core PCE inflation near 3.3% year-over-year, have shifted trader sentiment toward at least one 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase by year-end. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh, including references to ongoing inflation work at Jackson Hole, have reinforced this view amid resilient growth and supply-side pressures. Market-implied odds now price roughly 58% odds of a September move at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with analyst forecasts showing a doubling in the share expecting 2026 hikes. The current 73.5% probability for a hike in 2026 reflects this data-driven reassessment of the Fed's policy path versus prior hold expectations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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