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icon for Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 30 anos antes de 2027?
Economia·Taxas Fed

Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 30 anos antes de 2027?

icon for Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 30 anos antes de 2027?
Economia·Taxas Fed

Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 30 anos antes de 2027?

$13,335 Vol.

30 dez 2026
Polymarket

$13,335 Vol.

Polymarket

6,00%

$1,558 Vol.

12%

5,80%

$2,800 Vol.

14%

5,70%

$279 Vol.

22%

5,65%

$887 Vol.

29%

5,60%

$1,339 Vol.

33%

5,55%

$1,018 Vol.

49%

5,50%

$343 Vol.

71%

5,45%

$2,416 Vol.

81%

5,40%

$2,695 Vol.

93%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to approximately 5.36% as of mid-September 2026, near 19-year highs, driven primarily by elevated term premium amid heavy fiscal supply. The U.S. federal deficit is tracking near $2 trillion for FY2026 with debt exceeding $40 trillion, while Treasury issuance competes with strong corporate bond supply tied to AI infrastructure spending. Sticky inflation—August CPI at 3.4% and core at 2.4%—along with geopolitical oil price pressures has sustained upward momentum, reinforced by market-implied odds of near-term Fed rate hikes ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent auctions have cleared at elevated levels, with buyback programs providing limited offset, and traders are monitoring subsequent CPI, employment data, and refunding announcements for signals on whether yields can sustain or exceed recent peaks before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$13,335
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to approximately 5.36% as of mid-September 2026, near 19-year highs, driven primarily by elevated term premium amid heavy fiscal supply. The U.S. federal deficit is tracking near $2 trillion for FY2026 with debt exceeding $40 trillion, while Treasury issuance competes with strong corporate bond supply tied to AI infrastructure spending. Sticky inflation—August CPI at 3.4% and core at 2.4%—along with geopolitical oil price pressures has sustained upward momentum, reinforced by market-implied odds of near-term Fed rate hikes ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent auctions have cleared at elevated levels, with buyback programs providing limited offset, and traders are monitoring subsequent CPI, employment data, and refunding announcements for signals on whether yields can sustain or exceed recent peaks before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$13,335
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 30 anos antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "5,40%" at 93%, followed by "5,45%" at 81%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 30 anos antes de 2027?" has generated $13.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 30 anos antes de 2027?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 30 anos antes de 2027?" is "5,40%" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5,45%" at 81%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 30 anos antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.