Skip to main content

Para negociar nos EUA, acesse polymarket.us

icon for Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?
Economia·Taxas Fed

Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?

icon for Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?
Economia·Taxas Fed

Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?

NOVO
30 dez 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket

5,25%

$0 Vol.

17%

5,10%

$0 Vol.

23%

5,00%

$0 Vol.

32%

4,95%

$0 Vol.

41%

4,90%

$0 Vol.

43%

4,85%

$0 Vol.

52%

4,80%

$0 Vol.

56%

4,75%

$0 Vol.

65%

4,70%

$0 Vol.

71%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent upward pressure on the 5-year Treasury yield, currently near 4.57-4.62%, stems primarily from rising term premiums amid elevated fiscal deficits projected above 6% of GDP, heavy Treasury and corporate supply tied to AI infrastructure spending, and resilient growth with sticky core inflation. The Federal Reserve's 3.50-3.75% funds rate target, reaffirmed in July with three dissents favoring a hike, reflects a higher neutral rate amid labor market stability and supply shocks. Market-implied odds have shifted toward possible September FOMC tightening, lifting front-end yields while forward curves price sustained higher real rates through 2026. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation releases and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which could influence the peak yield before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent upward pressure on the 5-year Treasury yield, currently near 4.57-4.62%, stems primarily from rising term premiums amid elevated fiscal deficits projected above 6% of GDP, heavy Treasury and corporate supply tied to AI infrastructure spending, and resilient growth with sticky core inflation. The Federal Reserve's 3.50-3.75% funds rate target, reaffirmed in July with three dissents favoring a hike, reflects a higher neutral rate amid labor market stability and supply shocks. Market-implied odds have shifted toward possible September FOMC tightening, lifting front-end yields while forward curves price sustained higher real rates through 2026. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation releases and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which could influence the peak yield before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Relacionado

icon for O rendimento do Treasury de 5 anos irá cair abaixo de 4,50% antes de 2027?

O rendimento do Treasury de 5 anos irá cair abaixo de 4,50% antes de 2027?

84%
Sim
icon for O rendimento do título do Tesouro de 5 anos atingirá 4,64% em setembro?

O rendimento do título do Tesouro de 5 anos atingirá 4,64% em setembro?

70%
Sim
icon for A taxa do Treasury de 5 anos vai cair abaixo de 4,43% em setembro?

A taxa do Treasury de 5 anos vai cair abaixo de 4,43% em setembro?

47%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4,70%" at 71%, followed by "4,75%" at 65%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 71¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" is "4,70%" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4,75%" at 65%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.