Recent Q2 2026 GDP data, which expanded 0.5% quarter-on-quarter—above consensus but half the prior quarter’s pace—anchors trader focus on further deceleration into Q3 amid elevated Selic rates near 13.75% and inflation near 4.9%. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around the 0.0–0.5% bands because high real borrowing costs continue to restrain investment and consumption, while fiscal transfers and a still-resilient labor market provide partial offsets. Analysts’ full-year 2026 forecasts have edged lower to roughly 1.9%, with the December IBGE release serving as the key catalyst that could shift probabilities if monthly activity indicators or inflation prints deviate from expectations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado0,0% a 0,2% 31%
0,3% a 0,5% 30.6%
-0,3% a -0,1% 23%
0,9% a 1,1% 8.5%
$16,168 Vol.
$16,168 Vol.
1 dez 2026
<-0,3%
9%
-0,3% a -0,1%
28%
0,0% a 0,2%
31%
0,3% a 0,5%
31%
0,6% a 0,8%
5%
0,9% a 1,1%
10%
≥1,2%
<1%
0,0% a 0,2% 31%
0,3% a 0,5% 30.6%
-0,3% a -0,1% 23%
0,9% a 1,1% 8.5%
$16,168 Vol.
$16,168 Vol.
1 dez 2026
<-0,3%
$320 Vol.
9%
-0,3% a -0,1%
$4,628 Vol.
28%
0,0% a 0,2%
$8,101 Vol.
31%
0,3% a 0,5%
$2,185 Vol.
31%
0,6% a 0,8%
$309 Vol.
5%
0,9% a 1,1%
$330 Vol.
10%
≥1,2%
$297 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP data, which expanded 0.5% quarter-on-quarter—above consensus but half the prior quarter’s pace—anchors trader focus on further deceleration into Q3 amid elevated Selic rates near 13.75% and inflation near 4.9%. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around the 0.0–0.5% bands because high real borrowing costs continue to restrain investment and consumption, while fiscal transfers and a still-resilient labor market provide partial offsets. Analysts’ full-year 2026 forecasts have edged lower to roughly 1.9%, with the December IBGE release serving as the key catalyst that could shift probabilities if monthly activity indicators or inflation prints deviate from expectations.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado Aberto: Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$16,168Data de Término
2 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP data, which expanded 0.5% quarter-on-quarter—above consensus but half the prior quarter’s pace—anchors trader focus on further deceleration into Q3 amid elevated Selic rates near 13.75% and inflation near 4.9%. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around the 0.0–0.5% bands because high real borrowing costs continue to restrain investment and consumption, while fiscal transfers and a still-resilient labor market provide partial offsets. Analysts’ full-year 2026 forecasts have edged lower to roughly 1.9%, with the December IBGE release serving as the key catalyst that could shift probabilities if monthly activity indicators or inflation prints deviate from expectations.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$16,168Data de Término
2 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP data, which expanded 0.5% quarter-on-quarter—above consensus but half the prior quarter’s pace—anchors trader focus on further deceleration into Q3 amid elevated Selic rates near 13.75% and inflation near 4.9%. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around the 0.0–0.5% bands because high real borrowing costs continue to restrain investment and consumption, while fiscal transfers and a still-resilient labor market provide partial offsets. Analysts’ full-year 2026 forecasts have edged lower to roughly 1.9%, with the December IBGE release serving as the key catalyst that could shift probabilities if monthly activity indicators or inflation prints deviate from expectations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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