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icon for Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?
Economia·Taxas Fed

Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?

icon for Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?
Economia·Taxas Fed

Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?

NOVO
30 dez 2026
Polymarket

$9,048 Vol.

Polymarket

Abaixo de 4,50%

$56 Vol.

84%

Abaixo de 4,45%

$0 Vol.

75%

Abaixo de 4,40%

$504 Vol.

69%

Abaixo de 4,35%

$853 Vol.

61%

Abaixo de 4,30%

$0 Vol.

51%

Abaixo de 4,25%

$0 Vol.

43%

Abaixo de 4,20%

$522 Vol.

37%

Abaixo de 4,10%

$5,873 Vol.

24%

Abaixo de 4,00%

$1,240 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strength in U.S. labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 versus expectations near 55,000, alongside persistent inflation with PCE at 3.7% has shifted market-implied odds toward Federal Reserve rate hikes or a higher-for-longer stance. The 5-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.61%, up from August lows around 4.35%, reflecting expanded term premiums from heavy Treasury issuance, federal deficits near 6% of GDP, and elevated real yields near 2.2%. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and the upcoming September 11 CPI release plus September 15-16 FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could limit downside in yields absent clear disinflation signals. Trader positioning on Polymarket reflects this uncertainty, with probabilities clustered around levels below 4.50% through year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$9,048
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strength in U.S. labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 versus expectations near 55,000, alongside persistent inflation with PCE at 3.7% has shifted market-implied odds toward Federal Reserve rate hikes or a higher-for-longer stance. The 5-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.61%, up from August lows around 4.35%, reflecting expanded term premiums from heavy Treasury issuance, federal deficits near 6% of GDP, and elevated real yields near 2.2%. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and the upcoming September 11 CPI release plus September 15-16 FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could limit downside in yields absent clear disinflation signals. Trader positioning on Polymarket reflects this uncertainty, with probabilities clustered around levels below 4.50% through year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$9,048
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abaixo de 4,50%" at 84%, followed by "Abaixo de 4,45%" at 75%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" is "Abaixo de 4,50%" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Abaixo de 4,45%" at 75%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.